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Goldman Sachs Maintains NVIDIA Target Price at $285, Valuation Reflects ASIC Market Share Risks

On July 7, Goldman Sachs maintained its 'Buy' rating on NVIDIA with a target price of $285, stating that the current valuation adequately reflects the risks of market share loss due to self-developed AI chips and increasing competition. NVIDIA's recent performance has lagged behind the broader semiconductor sector. On Monday, chip stocks generally rebounded, but NVIDIA's gains were limited; year-to-date, its stock performance has also been significantly lower than that of AI hardware-related companies such as Micron, AMD, Intel, and Marvell. The main concern in the market is that major clients like Alphabet and Amazon are pushing their self-developed ASIC chips to third parties while still purchasing NVIDIA GPUs. Meanwhile, the increased CPU input in AI workloads has also provided AMD and Intel with more incremental opportunities. However, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider believes that NVIDIA's risk discount has become excessive. He anticipates that even if ASICs gain some market share and competitors achieve incremental growth, NVIDIA's revenue could still see strong growth in the next year. The mass production of the Vera Rubin platform in the second half of the year will be crucial in determining whether the company can regain a performance advantage.

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