On September 26, Goldman Sachs released a research report on the U.S. technology industry, conducting a quantitative analysis of the return on investment for large cloud providers as they continue to expand their capital expenditures in artificial intelligence (AI). The report focuses on six major U.S. tech companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, and SpaceX, and performs a stress test on their computing power investments from 2026 to 2027. Assuming an average upfront investment of approximately $42 billion per gigawatt (GW) of computing power, with 70% of capital expenditures allocated to hardware and 30% to data center construction, while incorporating conservative depreciation rules and ongoing operational costs, Goldman Sachs estimates that these six companies must collectively generate about $1.42 trillion in revenue from 2028 to 2030. This equates to approximately $11.6 billion in annual revenue per GW of computing power to achieve a 15% annualized return on invested capital (ROIC) for this round of AI computing investments. Goldman Sachs believes that the commercial value associated with different tokens varies, and the returns on AI capital expenditures will not be uniform. However, considering the market growth potential over the next 3 to 5 years, the firm still expects that capital invested in the AI sector over the next 18 months will maintain a good overall return on investment.
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