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Gary Marcus: Without Government Intervention, OpenAI and Anthropic May Fail

Renowned AI expert and cognitive scientist Gary Marcus has once again expressed skepticism about OpenAI and Anthropic. He stated that without government intervention, both companies are 'highly likely to fail.' If they cannot achieve stable profitability, taxpayers are not obligated to bail them out. This is not the first time Marcus has made such predictions; as early as 2024, he forecasted the impending collapse of the generative AI bubble, although his timeline for that collapse has yet to materialize. This time, Marcus attributes the pressure to the rise of Chinese models, companies beginning to control token consumption, and the difficulty for both companies to support their nearly trillion-dollar valuations with their current profitability. His concerns are not unfounded. OpenAI reported $5.7 billion in revenue in the first quarter but burned through $3.7 billion in cash. Meanwhile, Chinese models like Kimi K3 are approaching the top U.S. closed-source models at lower prices.

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