July 31 news: At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable, while pointing out that AI-related high-tech investment is an important pillar supporting steady economic expansion. Three committee members explicitly advocated for a 25-basis-point rate hike, marking the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes were cast in the same direction. The market interpreted this as 'hawkish wait-and-see,' indicating that although the rate hike has not yet materialized in the short term, the tightening direction remains unchanged. After the meeting, CME FedWatch showed that the probability of a September rate hike had fallen from nearly 80% to about 65%. Risk assets enjoyed a brief breathing window, and mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin recovered some lost ground after the news. Market sentiment shifted from cautious pre-meeting wait-and-see to moderate warming. From frontline trading data, the actual willingness of institutional funds to flow in is accelerating. Taking Xinhuo Group as an example, its over-the-counter (OTC) trading volume in July recently hit an all-time high, up 257% from June. On a weekly basis, trading volumes in each week of July saw significant growth compared to the same weeks in June. In particular, the week surrounding the FOMC meeting saw trading volume grow approximately 79% compared to the same week in June, reflecting that after digesting macro uncertainties, large funds are accelerating their return to real on-chain trading scenarios.
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