On July 30, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh stated at a press conference: "Today's three dissenting votes do not fully reflect the substance of the discussion. The decision we made received overwhelming support. The June core CPI data had a limited impact on the decision. We will communicate with the inflation working group within a few weeks. We have received some encouraging inflation data, and we will closely monitor it in the coming period. What matters is the inflation trend. In the period ahead, we will face important decisions."
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Federal Reserve Chair Walsh: June Core CPI Data Has Limited Impact on Decision-Making
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Trump Says Will Strike Iran Hard and Impose Tariffs on Iran
On July 30, U.S. President Donald Trump told the media at the White House on the afternoon of July 29 local time that the United States would deliver a heavy blow to Iran because of the missile attack by Iran on U.S. forces in the Middle East, stating that now it is "America's turn to retaliate." Trump said, "Iran knows this strike is inevitable and asked the U.S. not to launch it," but the U.S. will "teach them a lesson." Trump also said he hopes to add provisions authorizing the U.S. to impose tariffs on Iran into the sanctions bill against Russia previously pushed by late Senator Lindsey Graham. (CCTV International News) -
Fed Holds Interest Rate Steady
On July 30, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. -
Fed's Rate Decision Imminent, Probability of Holding Rates Steady at 66.3%
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the second interest rate decision since taking office at 2 a.m. Beijing time. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 20.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 23.2%. -
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls 4%, Micron Technology Down 5%
On July 29, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.00%. NVIDIA dropped 2.98%, TSMC dropped 3.67%, Broadcom dropped 1.87%, SK Hynix dropped 1.28%, Micron Technology dropped 5%, AMD dropped 5.51%, Intel dropped 3.36%, ASML dropped 2.73%, Lam Research dropped 5.28%, Arm Holdings dropped 6.73%, SanDisk dropped 8.04%, Qualcomm dropped 2.84%, Marvell Technology dropped 4.82%, and Western Digital dropped 0.68%. -
China Drafts New Rules Against Cyber Violence, Bringing AI-Generated Content Under Regulation
On July 29, China's Cyberspace Administration issued a draft regulation on cyberbullying governance for public comment. The draft requires platforms to build classifiers for detecting cyber violence content, provide users with a "one-click protection" feature, and implement blacklist management and regular reporting mechanisms for violating accounts. Notably, the draft explicitly brings AI-generated deepfake images and synthetic harassment texts under regulatory oversight. The Q&A platform Zhihu has already responded by restricting the use of anonymous accounts. -
U.S. stocks decline further, Nasdaq drops over 1%, Nvidia falls over 3%
On July 29th, U.S. stocks fell further, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping over 1%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.83%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.48%, and Nvidia falling over 3%. -
WTI crude oil intraday gain reaches 7%
On July 29, WTI crude oil's intraday gains once expanded to 7.00%, now reporting at $83.7 per barrel. Brent crude is now up 6.5%, reporting at $87.3 per barrel. -
ING: Dollar to Be Influenced by Oil If Fed Holds Rates Steady
On July 29, ING Group stated that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the dollar will face pressure and decline along with oil prices. The dollar index has been nearly flat for the fourth consecutive session, seemingly unaffected by recent oil price fluctuations. On Wednesday, the 60-day rolling correlation between the dollar spot index and Brent crude oil futures prices fell to its lowest level since late March. ING strategist Francesco Pesole wrote, "This resilience will be severely tested today. If the Fed maintains its interest rate, it should trigger precautionary position unwinding against the dollar, re-linking the dollar to the signal of falling oil prices." -
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,000, Gold and Silver Decline Together
On July 29, spot gold fell below the $4,000 mark, with gold and silver declining together. Coeur Mining and First Majestic Silver fell more than 4%, Endeavour Silver and Pan American Silver fell more than 3%, while Eldorado Gold, Barrick Gold, US Gold Corp, and Kinross Gold all fell more than 2%.
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