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Fed Chair Waller: The Role of Forward Guidance Should Be Limited

On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that the role of forward guidance should be limited. Market participants should focus on real information in the economy and avoid formulating forward-looking policies based on outdated or inaccurate data.

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  • Waller Addresses Concerns, Emphasizes 'Primary Focus on Prices'

    On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer have exceeded expectations, they do not convince me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." He added, "Market prices reflect the belief that we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct." Waller subsequently emphasized that with inflation rates above 2%, the Fed's "current primary focus should be on prices." His highly anticipated remarks come amid criticism of the Fed's streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe this strategy lacks clarity regarding the recent economic and monetary policy outlook. Waller's speech appears to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views regarding the economic situation and the policy priorities of the Fed under his leadership. He stated, "Let’s also clarify another aspect of our goals: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Fed." It is expected that Waller will not answer questions posed by central bank officials and economists in attendance.

  • Waller Addresses Concerns, Emphasizes 'Primary Focus on Prices'

    On August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer have exceeded expectations, they have not convinced me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." He added, "Market prices reflect that the market believes we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct." Waller subsequently emphasized that with inflation rates above 2%, the Fed's "current primary focus should be on prices." His highly anticipated speech comes amid criticism of the Fed's streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe this strategy lacks clear articulation regarding the recent economic and monetary policy outlook. Waller's remarks seem to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views regarding the economic situation and the Fed's policy priorities under his leadership. He stated, "Let us also clarify another aspect of our goals: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve." It is expected that Waller will not answer questions posed by central bank officials and economists present at the event.

  • Fed Chair Waller: The Role of Forward Guidance Should Be Limited

    On August 28, Fed Chair Waller stated that the role of forward guidance should be limited. Market participants should focus on real information in the economy and avoid formulating forward-looking policies based on outdated or inaccurate data.

  • Market Pricing Indicates 50% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September

    Market pricing shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is now estimated to be around 50%.

  • Market Pricing Indicates 50% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September

    Market pricing shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is now estimated to be around 50%.

  • US Employment Growth Revised Downward, Signs of Labor Market Cooling More Apparent

    As of March, the employment growth in the United States has been more moderate than previously reported, highlighting a downward trend in the labor market. This has prompted the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in 2025 despite ongoing inflation. According to preliminary benchmark revision data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, non-farm payrolls may be revised down by 79,000, a decrease of 0.1%. Final data will be published early next year.

  • US Job Growth Revised Downward, Signs of Cooling Labor Market More Apparent

    As of August 28, the job growth in the United States for the year ending in March has been revised to be more moderate than previously reported, highlighting a downward trend in the labor market. This has led the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in 2025 despite ongoing inflation. According to preliminary benchmark revision data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, non-farm payrolls may be adjusted down by 79,000, a decrease of 0.1%. Final data will be published early next year.

  • Waller: Inflation Remains Above Target, Fed Has Work to Do

    On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Waller warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing down and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." Waller reiterated that the Fed aims to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target, describing it as a clear and fixed goal. He said, "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and the pace must be sufficiently clear and fast. Otherwise, we have work to do. That is our responsibility." Waller also noted that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the "primary tool" for the Fed to fulfill its duties.

  • Walsh: Inflation Still Above Target, Fed Has Work to Do

    On August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." Walsh reiterated that the Fed aims to bring the inflation rate back to its 2% target, describing it as a clear and fixed goal. He said, "My standard is that we must be certain that underlying inflation is moving towards our target, and the pace must be sufficiently clear and fast. Otherwise, we have work to do. That is our responsibility." Walsh also noted that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the "primary tool" for the Fed to fulfill its responsibilities.

  • Chevron and Other U.S. Companies Seek to Invest Billions in Venezuelan Oil Fields

    On August 28, The Wall Street Journal reported that Chevron (CVX.US) and other U.S. energy companies are close to finalizing an agreement to invest billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil fields. This development could yield results for President Trump after months of slow negotiations. Sources indicate that Chevron is nearing a deal to expand its long-standing operations in the Latin American country and may include two additional heavy oil fields in Venezuela in its portfolio. Currently, Chevron has three joint ventures with Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PdVSA, and is the only major U.S. company operating in Venezuela. Additionally, one of the largest oilfield service companies in the U.S., Halliburton (HAL.N), is also in negotiations to introduce its full suite of equipment to Venezuela to provide services to local oil producers.

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