On August 14, analyst qinbafrank published a comparison of two major leaders in the US optical interconnect sector, Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE). The differences in their positioning lead to distinct investment logic: Coherent is the leader in scale and platform within the US photonics industry, with advantages in scale, product breadth, manufacturing platform, and long-term technology stack and customer coverage. In contrast, Lumentum stands out in the AI optical value pool with greater profit density and elasticity, significantly leading in growth rate, gross margin, operating leverage, current operational quality, and net liquidity. The size gap between the two leaders is rapidly narrowing—Coherent's revenue for the fiscal year 2026 is 2.36 times that of Lumentum, but this ratio has decreased to 2.03 times in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, and the midpoint of guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 further narrows it to 1.84 times. Based on the midpoint of next quarter's guidance, Coherent's revenue is approximately 1.84 times that of Lumentum, but the implied Non-GAAP operating profit is only about 1.04 times. With a quarterly revenue ratio of about 2.03 times, Coherent generated only about 1.62 times Lumentum's Non-GAAP gross profit, 1.21 times its operating profit, and 1.08 times its net profit. This comparison clearly indicates that Lumentum significantly outperforms Coherent in profit quality and operating leverage, while the gap in revenue and profit scale between the two is rapidly closing.
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