On August 14, analyst qinbafrank published a comparison of two leading companies in the U.S. optical interconnect sector, Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE). The positioning differences between the two determine distinct investment logic: Coherent is the leader in scale and platform within the U.S. photonics industry, excelling in scale, product breadth, manufacturing platforms, and long-term technology stack and customer coverage. In contrast, Lumentum stands out in the AI optical value pool with higher profit density and elasticity, significantly leading in growth rate, gross margin, operational leverage, current operational quality, and net liquidity. The size gap between the two leaders is rapidly narrowing—Coherent's revenue for the fiscal year 2026 is 2.36 times that of Lumentum, which has decreased to 2.03 times in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, and is projected to further narrow to 1.84 times in the midpoint guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. Based on the midpoint of the next quarter's guidance, Coherent's revenue is approximately 1.84 times that of Lumentum, but the implied Non-GAAP operating profit is only about 1.04 times. With a quarterly revenue of approximately 2.03 times, Coherent generated only about 1.62 times Lumentum's Non-GAAP gross profit, 1.21 times its operating profit, and 1.08 times its net profit. This comparison clearly indicates that Lumentum significantly outperforms Coherent in terms of profit quality and operational leverage, while the gap in revenue and profit scale between the two is rapidly closing.
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