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Changes to U.S. PCE Calculation Method May Cool Fed's Preferred Inflation Indicator

On July 7, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that it will adjust certain calculation methods for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), an inflation indicator heavily relied upon by the Federal Reserve. These changes are expected to be reflected in data revisions published on September 30, 2026, potentially making inflation readings later this year appear slightly lower. Market estimates suggest that this adjustment could lower the core PCE inflation rate by about 0.2 percentage points. Current data shows that the core PCE inflation rate was 3.4% over the past 12 months ending in May 2026, remaining above the Fed's 2% target since March 2021. The BEA is primarily adjusting price calculations in three specific areas: portfolio management and investment advisory services, computer software and accessories, and legal services. For example, in asset management services, the current statistical method often directly follows market performance fluctuations rather than reflecting true price changes. For instance, when an investor pays a fixed 1% management fee and their portfolio rises by 20%, this is recorded as a 20% increase in the price of asset management services. Former Fed Governor Milan noted in a speech last December, "What should have been recorded as an increase in the quantity of services consumed has been recorded as a price increase." In the realm of software and technology products, Milan, along with Fed economists Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony M. Diercks, published a paper in May this year analyzing the shortcomings of existing statistical methods, including measurement issues for products like portable storage devices and video games. J.P. Morgan economist Abiel Reinhart even joked, "Grand Theft Auto VI may also have a chance to influence the U.S. Treasury yield curve." Although these adjustments are methodologically sound and will help more accurately reflect price changes in the long term, their timing is sensitive and has sparked discussions about the independence of statistics.

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