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Boston Fed: Limited Impact of Iran War on US Labor Market

On June 5, according to AXIOS, the Boston Fed believes that while inflation costs remain in the face of a crisis similar to the oil crisis of the 1970s, the employment risks appear to be far less than they were 50 years ago. As tensions in Iran continue, early signs of recovery are emerging in the labor market. If the risk to employment from energy supply disruptions is minimal, the central bank's challenge will shift from managing stagflation risks to preventing a new wave of price pressures. In its latest research, the bank asserts that an oil shock equivalent to that caused by the Iran war would lead to a significant rise in inflation but would have almost no impact on national employment. Economists state, 'The US economy's vulnerability to oil shocks has not been eliminated, but has transformed. Today, the challenges posed by oil shocks to monetary policy may be smaller, allowing policymakers to focus more on the greater risks to inflation.' Researchers estimate that the US-Iran conflict has caused oil prices to rise by 33%, a historically significant magnitude, but not unprecedented. The current structure of the US economy differs from previous energy crisis periods, enabling it to absorb such shocks while causing much less damage to national employment.

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