On June 7, DoubleLine Capital and Oaktree Capital are strategically positioning themselves for the potential burst of the AI bubble by selectively investing in bonds that can survive deep credit cycles. DoubleLine Capital fund manager Robert Cohen stated at the Bloomberg Global Credit Bond Forum that 'the probability of an AI bubble is about 100%.' He believes that as technology companies continue to invest heavily, the market will undoubtedly reach bubble levels in the coming months or years. Cohen defines a credit bubble as investors providing financing to companies that require actual growth to service their debts, noting that historical tech booms often end in this manner. Therefore, he advocates for seeking out targets that can survive through structural arrangements or strong balance sheets, rather than relying on future growth expectations. The debt levels in the AI industry have reached unprecedented heights. According to Barclays, the issuance of unsecured bonds by U.S. mega-cap tech companies has surpassed $155 billion globally this year, over 45% higher than the total for last year. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that corporate AI capital expenditures will reach about $5 trillion over the next five years, a significant portion of which will rely on debt financing. Just this week, Hut 8 issued approximately $4 billion in investment-grade bonds to finance Nvidia-related data center projects, receiving four times the oversubscription. A $36 billion bond for chip procurement by Anthropic is also nearing completion. Christina Lee, co-portfolio manager of private credit at Oaktree Capital, stated that while there are vast financing opportunities in data centers, they must be carefully selected, 'because it is still unclear who will win and who will exit.' PIMCO Group Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn is more cautious, believing that AI is not suitable for over-allocation, but due to the enormous financing demand, it can release value while maintaining defensiveness, warning that the extent of losses in the event of defaults may exceed historical experiences. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates cautioned that large-scale technological revolutions are always accompanied by excessive speculation, placing companies in a dilemma of either spending heavily to capture market share or not investing enough and conceding to competitors.
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