On April 17, the market began to reprice 'the form of war' rather than 'the existence of war.' The shift from a comprehensive agreement to a temporary framework between the U.S. and Iran, along with increasing ceasefire signals, has superficially reduced the tail risk of extreme supply disruptions, directly triggering a decline in dollar safe-haven demand and a rebound in risk assets. However, at the same time, the U.S. has expanded its shipping and energy-related sanctions against Iran, including crude oil, refined oil, and industrial metals, indicating that substantial constraints on the supply side have not only remained in place but have become more structural. This mismatch of 'expected easing vs. actual contraction' is distorting market pricing. There has been no substantial easing in the energy market, yet the dollar has weakened due to a recovery in risk appetite, creating a typical asset misalignment: safe-haven assets are prematurely reflecting optimistic scenarios while commodities continue to price in supply constraints. This is why Wall Street has begun to uniformly turn bearish on the dollar; the essence is not a deterioration in fundamentals but rather a rebalancing behavior of funds flowing back from wartime allocations to risk assets. Deeper changes are coming from policy levels and funding structures. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious or even tight tone internally, while the market's pricing for rate cuts throughout the year has been drastically compressed, indicating that interest rate expectations have not genuinely shifted towards easing. Additionally, warnings from former Treasury secretaries about risks to U.S. Treasury demand, combined with persistently high long-term rates, suggest that global trust in 'risk-free assets' is marginally wavering. This could further weaken the structural support for the dollar, making it more susceptible to fluctuations in risk sentiment. Returning to the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently in a typical liquidity redistribution phase. The price has tested the supply zone above 75,000 multiple times without effectively stabilizing, with high-density liquidation and trapped pressure persisting around the 76,000 level; however, a clear liquidity support has formed in the 72,000 to 73,000 range, indicating that funds have not withdrawn but have instead shifted to high-frequency reallocation within the range. From the perspective of liquidation heat distribution, the market is constructing a new equilibrium rather than extending a unidirectional trend. Overall, the market has transitioned from being 'event-driven' to being 'structural mismatch-driven.' Short-term price fluctuations will depend more on how funds are reallocated between safe-haven assets, energy commodities, and risk assets, rather than on any single macro event itself. The real key now is not whether the conflict ends, but when supply constraints and liquidity conditions will realign.