with the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, attention has shifted to the country's transition to new leadership — and a Bitcoin supporter is involved in the race for this power handover.

Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado is currently seen as the second most likely candidate to lead Venezuela out of Maduro's authoritarian rule. Maduro has been transferred to New York, facing federal charges related to drug trafficking and corruption.

Data from prediction market Kalshi shows that Machado has a 28% chance of leading Venezuela by the end of 2026, second only to Edmundo González Urrutia of the Unitary Platform Alliance (32%). The latter is widely considered to have won the Venezuelan election in May 2025, but his path to the presidency has been blocked by the United Socialist Party led by Maduro.

Ranking third is Vice President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez (27%). She was Maduro’s former running mate and, after Maduro’s arrest, was appointed acting president by the Venezuelan Supreme Court.