On July 2, crypto analyst Murphy stated that the circulating loss ratio can be used to compare the "pain level" of investors in different bear markets, measuring the extreme range of quantified market sentiment. Factors such as low-cost chips being locked in, higher bear market bottoms, and a more mature holder structure have led to a decreasing circulating loss ratio in each bear market compared to the previous one. For instance, the peak in 2015 was 64%, in 2019 it was 60%, and in 2022 it was 55%. As of June 30, when BTC dropped to $58,000, this ratio rose to 54%. This is the highest value observed in the current cycle so far. If the decreasing trend of the past decade continues, then 54% is already very close to the previous peak limit; indicating that $58,000 is near the bottom. However, I have also been pondering a question: during this bull market cycle, a significant amount of ancient low-cost chips has been moved, with major institutions accumulating them at high prices, which has led to an overall increase in the cost center for long-term holders (LTH). These chips are currently at a loss, and if they remain inactive, it will increase the base of loss-making chips. Could this break the past pattern, meaning that the circulating loss ratio in this bear market could exceed the previous peak of 55%? I believe there is a possibility. However, my personal judgment is that even if it exceeds, it won't be by much, likely remaining between 55-60%.