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Alliance DAO co-founder: The top of the 4-year crypto cycle is emerging; the US stock market AI bubble will dominate price movements.

 Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao recently stated that although macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE), the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuilding, and interest rate cuts indicate a market rise, intuitively everything feels over. QwQiao describes crypto as a self-fulfilling asset class, emphasizing the inevitability of the four-year cycle prophecy, which places the market at a frustrating crossroads. As a long-term optimist, he has been uneasy about the crypto market since mid-September and has observed that most smart traders and long-term investors have turned bearish.

Turning to U.S. stocks, QwQiao views artificial intelligence (AI) as the sole dominant cycle factor, far surpassing liquidity indicators and technical signals. He warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will collapse; conversely, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, the bears will be completely wrong. He compares NVIDIA (NVDA) to Bitcoin in crypto, pointing out that when AI stocks (especially NVIDIA) rise, funds flow out of crypto and other assets, causing crypto to fall, and vice versa, forming a binary pattern of AI stocks vs. everything else.

In niche sectors, QwQiao is optimistic about the growth momentum of stablecoin startups, believing it far exceeds the speed of AI startups, mainly because competition in the stablecoin market is scarce, whereas the AI vertical is already crowded with more than 50 players. This year, his U.S. stock investment returns have significantly outperformed crypto, and he has avoided high-growth but inefficient AI stocks, instead favoring quality companies at reasonable prices.

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