On September 15, at 1 PM New York time, the upcoming reissue auction of 20-year U.S. Treasuries is expected to achieve the highest auction yield for this maturity since it resumed issuance in 2020. A slight bear steepening in the long-end bond market has pushed yields higher. This reissue, sized at $13 billion, has a pre-auction trading yield of approximately 5.41%, which would surpass the record of 5.245% set on October 5, 2023, marking a historical high for this maturity. Last week's coupon-bearing Treasury auction saw strong demand at high yield levels, which could be a potential positive for this 20-year Treasury auction. The yield on the 20-year Treasury reached a high of 5.44% on Tuesday, a historical peak since its resumption. Last week's auctions of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries had bid yields that were 1.4 basis points and 2.7 basis points lower than the issuance yields, respectively. JPMorgan strategists noted in a report on Monday evening that the macro environment lacks attractiveness, valuations are high, and technical support is insufficient, indicating that this auction may require a larger yield concession to be successfully absorbed. The latest positioning data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that speculators hold a net short position of 200,000 traditional Treasury futures, which could create demand for short covering.
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