The current global stablecoin market presents an extreme oligopoly pattern: USDT and USDC, with over a decade of accumulated liquidity, global distribution channels, and massive network effects, monopolize over 99% of the market volume, with an overall scale exceeding $400 billion. However, the total size of various foreign exchange spot stablecoins is only 600 million US dollars, which is 700 times larger than that of US dollar stablecoins.

Under the dual pressure of Tether and Circle, the path of emerging stablecoin projects attempting to break through through the spot forex track is no longer feasible. The founder of Supernova proposed a new industry consensus: building an on chain MtM NDF synthetic foreign exchange system on the mature foundation of US dollar stablecoins is the only efficient path for new players to break the oligopoly, seize global multi currency financial demand, and enter the new banking track of stablecoins.

1、 Industry dilemma: Spot forex stablecoins are inherently unable to challenge the US dollar giants

For a long time, the market has generally been optimistic about the potential of the on chain foreign exchange track. 95% -99% of countries and companies worldwide use non US dollar currencies for bookkeeping, which has long been limited by a single US dollar stablecoin system for massive cross-border payments, corporate bookkeeping, and personal daily transaction needs. The seemingly blue ocean track has caused countless players to fail, and the core issue lies in the unbreakable structural weakness of spot foreign exchange stablecoins.

Compared to the mature ecosystems of USDT and USDC, spot foreign exchange stablecoins face multiple fatal challenges: insufficient liquidity depth can easily lead to anchor detachment risks, even the gold stablecoin PAXG with 1.2 billion TVL has experienced anchor detachment problems, and the risk of smaller foreign exchange stablecoins is multiplied; At the same time, these types of currencies are difficult to integrate into CEX and mainstream fintech systems, with a lack of channels for fiat currency deposits and withdrawals, poor liquidity in trading pairs, and scarce on chain profit scenarios.

The core issue is the industry's vicious cycle of "chicken laying eggs, egg laying chickens": without sufficient scale, it is impossible to gain market recognition and connect to the mainstream financial ecosystem; Without ecological applications and user scenarios, it will never be possible to achieve large-scale development. This also leads to all foreign exchange stablecoins that rely on spot models being unable to form effective competitiveness and can only become marginal products in the market.

2、 New Industry Trend: Stablecoins, New Banks Say Goodbye to Pure Trading Track

The core competitive logic of stablecoins has already been iterated. The value of early stablecoins was dependent on the trading and speculative scenarios of cryptocurrencies, with Whale and institutional trading users being the core increments. But the top players in the industry have already reached a consensus that the ultimate future of stablecoins is a daily financial tool for the general public, rather than a niche trading asset.

As stated in Tether's internal core strategy, one billion retail investors hold $10 worth of stablecoins each, which is much more valuable than a single whale holding billions of funds. The core support for the long-term value of stablecoins is dispersed, long-term, and used for daily savings and payments by retail and corporate users. This has also given rise to a new track - stablecoin new banks.

The new stablecoin bank has completely broken free from the limitations of encrypted transactions, focusing on real economy scenarios such as global daily payments, cross-border transfers, corporate accounting, and asset savings, becoming the next core growth pole in the cryptocurrency industry. The data confirms the explosive potential of the track: by 2025, the consumption scale of encrypted cards will skyrocket 24 times, from $14.6 million to $91.3 million, with an annualized consumption exceeding $1.35 billion. Among them, the peak daily consumption of Ether.fi single card will reach $3.7 million.

But currently, the vast majority of new stablecoin banks have a fatal weakness: they only support the US dollar account system. The vast majority of accounting and transactions for businesses and individuals worldwide are in non US dollar currencies, with a single US dollar account model that makes it impossible for stablecoin banks to meet the real global financial needs. Ultimately, they can only become a conduit for funds, unable to deposit users and assets.

Looking back at the growth path of traditional fintech giants, whether it is Wise, Revolut, Airwallex, or early PayPal, the core breakthrough point is foreign exchange business. When PayPal went public, its foreign exchange business accounted for over 40%, which proves that multi currency foreign exchange services are the core barrier of global financial platforms. This also means that new stablecoin banks that only engage in US dollar business will never truly achieve a breakthrough in scale.

3、 Paradigm innovation: Abandoning spot trading and synthesizing foreign exchange through NDF is the optimal solution

The traditional cryptocurrency industry is overly fixated on "spot stablecoins," but the traditional foreign exchange market has long proven that spot currencies are not mainstream. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), only 31% of global foreign exchange trading is spot trading, and 69% of trading volume comes from foreign exchange derivatives. Among them, the daily trading volume of foreign exchange swaps is as high as $4 trillion, and non deliverable forwards (NDFs) are the core tool for institutions to serve cross-border foreign exchange needs.

The core logic of MtM NDF (daily mark to market non deliverable forward) is very clear: there is no need to exchange, hold, or settle real foreign currencies, and the underlying assets of the user are always USDT/USDC. The corresponding foreign currency valuation exposure is obtained only through synthetic positions, and the profit and loss difference is settled only in US dollars at maturity. At the same time, the daily mark to market mechanism is used to reduce counterparty risk and improve capital efficiency.

This mature traditional financial paradigm perfectly solves all the pain points of on chain forex and becomes the ultimate weapon for emerging stablecoin players to break through. Compared to spot forex stablecoins, the synthetic NDF model has five core advantages:

Firstly, anchoring is more stable, relying on authoritative oracle exchange rate pricing, without relying on weak local spot liquidity, and eliminating the risk of anchor detachment from the root;

Secondly, retaining the ecological dividend of the US dollar, users can continue to hold USDT/USDC and enjoy the deepest liquidity, most comprehensive trading scenarios, and stable staking income on the entire network;

Thirdly, it is infinitely scalable. As long as there is a USD exchange rate oracle, it can quickly support all global currencies such as Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Singapore Dollar, Brazilian Real, etc., without the need to connect with the banking systems and custody qualifications of various countries;

Fourthly, the capital efficiency is extremely high, without the need for full foreign currency exchange, only settling profit and loss differences, significantly reducing the cost of capital occupation;

Fifth, the landing threshold is extremely low, avoiding the complex compliance, issuance, and custody challenges of various countries, and enabling rapid global deployment.

4、 Three core landing scenarios, supporting the trillion dollar on chain foreign exchange market

NDF synthetic foreign exchange is not simply a financial instrument innovation, but accurately matches the real needs of individuals, enterprises, and institutions around the world. The three core scenarios will continue to drive the outbreak of the track.

1. Stablecoins, new banks, and multi currency wallets

The biggest pain point of current on chain finance is the inability to meet the global multi currency accounting needs. Relying on the MtM NDF API interface, wallets, custodians, and stablecoin banks can quickly launch multi currency account functions. Users' underlying funds are still USDT/USDC, but their accounts can freely switch pricing methods such as Euro, Swiss Franc, Hong Kong Dollar, etc., perfectly adapting to overseas enterprise accounting and personal cross-border storage needs, helping the platform to accumulate core deposit assets and get rid of the awkward positioning of funds passing through channels.

2. High stability on chain forex arbitrage

Compared to crypto native basis arbitrage, forex spread trading is a more mature, stable, and large-scale macro strategy. Relying on the sovereign interest rate spread of various countries, users can use NDF to synthesize low interest currency financing, long high interest currencies (such as Brazilian real), and earn stable interest rate spread returns.

This type of income does not rely on the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and is linked to global sovereign monetary policies. It has the advantages of large capacity, strong stability, and unlimited scalability, far surpassing traditional on chain arbitrage products such as Ethena. It will become a new stable income track for institutions and large investors.

3. Global enterprise payments and hedging

At present, platforms such as Bridge and Stripe have implemented multi currency fiat currency collection and automatic exchange for US dollars, but cannot retain foreign currency denominated assets. Enterprises still need to rely on traditional banks to complete financial accounting. The on chain NDF model can replicate the foreign exchange hedging system of traditional finance: merchants can lock in local currency pricing, hedge exchange rate volatility risks, and complete the entire process on chain without the need to connect to traditional banks.

This track has extremely strong profitability. Referring to Stripe's forex hedging service, even for low-risk retail and corporate payment scenarios, it can still achieve a single transaction fee of 20 basis points, with an annualized hedging cost of 73%, and extremely high commercial value.

5、 Conclusion: Stablecoins are the culmination of a global synthetic currency system

Under the absolute monopoly of USDT and USDC, the old path of emerging stablecoin projects attempting to replicate the spot track is no longer feasible. The 700 fold volume gap, solidified network effects, and strict compliance thresholds have completely eliminated the possibility of spot foreign exchange stablecoins breaking through.

The competition for future stablecoins is no longer about 'whose spot liquidity is better', but 'who can build a more complete synthetic forex ecosystem'. Relying on the MtM NDF on chain synthetic foreign exchange model, while retaining the liquidity, revenue, and compliance advantages of US dollar stablecoins, it undertakes 99% of global non US dollar financial needs, serving three core scenarios of stablecoin new banks, enterprise cross-border payments, and institutional foreign exchange arbitrage. It is the only deterministic path for new players to break the monopoly of giants and open up the global popularization of stablecoins.