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US Lawmaker Proposes Ban on Congressional Members Betting in Prediction Markets, Oversight Group Calls for Expansion to All Federal Employees

On June 21, U.S. Representative Brian Stile introduced the "Stop Betting on Congress Act," which aims to prohibit members of Congress, as well as their spouses and children, from betting on prediction market contracts related to government policies or actions. Violators would face a civil penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction amount (whichever is higher) and would be required to forfeit all profits. The government oversight organization, the Project On Government Oversight (POGO), welcomed the proposal but argued that its scope is too narrow, calling for the ban to be extended to all officials and staff across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the federal government. POGO pointed out that current laws impose almost zero restrictions on conflicts of interest for federal employees, and the emergence of prediction markets further amplifies the risk of insider information being misused, leading not only to unfair competition but also potentially distorting public policy decisions. Currently, the approval rating for the U.S. Congress stands at only 24%. This regulatory gap has led to real cases: U.S. Army Special Forces officer Cannon Van Dyke has been accused of using military intelligence to profit from bets on Polymarket, with the case set to be heard on December 7. Additionally, the Anti-Corruption Data Alliance has tracked over $9.3 million in high-yield bets that are highly correlated with military actions in Venezuela and Iran, raising suspicions of insider trading. Previously, Stile's "Stop Insider Trading Act" passed the House Administration Committee in January but has not progressed further.

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