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UBS Raises SK Hynix Target Price to 3.2 Million KRW, Upgrades Sales Price and Operating Profit Forecasts

On July 7, UBS published a report expressing confidence that SK Hynix is continuing to secure more revised long-term agreements (LTAs), focusing on DDR5 and NAND Flash for large data center clients. These contracts have a duration of over five years, with approximately 60% to 70% of the expected volume and price already locked in, providing greater visibility for future profits. Based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 3.65 times over the next 12 months, the firm raised its target price from 3 million KRW to 3.2 million KRW, maintaining a 'Buy' rating. Additionally, SK Hynix has begun ramping up shipments of HBM4 for the Rubin platform in the second quarter, indicating that it has completed final design adjustments to meet specifications. Although Samsung Electronics may slightly lead SK Hynix in HBM market share by 2027 (41% to 39%), the long-term outlook suggests that HBM's share in SK Hynix's DRAM business is expected to surpass that of its peers. The firm predicts that HBM's contribution to DRAM revenue will rise from 15% in 2026 to 58% by 2030. If the average selling price of HBM continues to increase, it will provide additional support for profits in 2027. Furthermore, the firm indicated that the shareholder return policy is expected to continue strengthening, with expectations for share buybacks to begin after the ADR listing and to gradually accelerate. The firm noted that there is still room for further price increases in DDR and NAND Flash contracts in the second half of 2026. Considering the revised long-term agreements and HBM, it forecasts that the average selling price of DRAM will increase by 43% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026; by 21% in the third quarter; and by 13% in the fourth quarter. For NAND, it expects a 43% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter, a 25% increase in the third quarter, and a 10% increase in the fourth quarter. Taking into account the upward revision of sales price forecasts, UBS raised its operating profit forecast for this year by 7% to 327 trillion KRW, and increased the forecasts for the next two years by 12% each to 623 trillion KRW and 667 trillion KRW, respectively.

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