On October 12, the U.S. Q3 earnings season will kick off. Wall Street expects S&P 500 companies to report year-on-year profit growth of about 29%–31%, with approximately two-thirds of this growth coming from tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. The market's focus has shifted from 'whether profits will grow' to 'whether growth can match valuations.' Investors are paying attention to three key points: whether AI capital expenditures can be converted into revenue and profits, whether AI demand can spread to more industries, and whether companies are beginning to feel the impact of rising financing costs. Currently, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, with high interest rates continuing to suppress valuations. Major banks will be the first to release earnings reports, providing signals on credit demand, credit quality, and interest rate trends. The biggest risk is that profit expectations are already fully priced in, and only significant positive surprises can drive valuation expansion; otherwise, high oil prices, high yields, and uncertainties in AI return cycles may lead to greater volatility. Earnings report schedule (Eastern Time): October 13 before the market opens: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup; October 14: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, ASML; October 15: TSMC; late October: Tesla on October 21, Microsoft and Alphabet on October 27, Meta on October 28, Apple and Amazon on October 29 after market close, and Nvidia around November 17; cryptocurrency companies Coinbase and Strategy on October 29, and mining companies Marathon and Riot from late October to early November.