On October 11, investors may be overly pessimistic about CATL's profit expectations. A report from Morgan Stanley on October 9 pointed out that the current market focus is overly concentrated on the Chinese passenger car market, which accounts for about one-third of CATL's total electric vehicle battery sales. However, the bank emphasized that the electrification of China's commercial vehicle fleet, the renewed acceleration of electric vehicle adoption in Europe, and the turning point in electric vehicle demand in other global markets outside the U.S. have created a substantial revenue opportunity that cannot be ignored. The market has underestimated CATL's cross-cycle resilience. Analysts Jack Lu and Kaylee Xu noted in the report that based on total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, CATL's technological advantages can support a premium of up to 0.24 yuan per watt-hour, significantly higher than the current actual profit premium of 0.09 yuan per watt-hour, indicating a solid profit moat. In response to concerns from some investors that next year's battery net profit may drop to 0.08 yuan per watt-hour or lower, the analysts believe such a scenario would lead to an accelerated industry shakeout, as many second-tier battery manufacturers are already experiencing negative cash flow. Therefore, the firm views this as a 'bottom-fishing scenario' for CATL's stock, maintaining an 'overweight' rating on its A-shares with a target price set at 500 yuan.
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