On October 11, Killa (@KillaXBT), a user on X, shared his perspective that the ideal path for BTC is to rise before the midterm elections, establishing a bullish narrative and surpassing previous highs. Following this, he anticipates a pullback post-election, similar to past cycles, but with higher lows instead of new cycle lows. He believes that if there is a decline before the elections, it is more likely to rise towards $95,000 afterward. Citing data, he noted that nearly $2 billion in long positions were just liquidated, with only three weeks until the midterm elections. Historically, in four midterm elections, three have seen bearish trends emerge one to two months after the elections, giving a probability of 75%. He stated that the worst-case scenario would be a price rebound leading into the elections, followed by a reversal that traps the other side before de-risking. He believes that the narrative for one side has already been liquidated, and the current exposure of shorts is higher than that of longs. The author claims to still hold 10x long positions and longs established at 62.6K and 76.4K, with all positions fully allocated and not closed. This represents his personal trading view and is not an objective event.
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