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JPMorgan Includes BTC in Long-Term Capital Assumption Report, Predicts It Will Be the Best Performing Asset Over the Next Decade

On October 20, JPMorgan included Bitcoin (BTC) in its latest long-term capital assumption report for the first time. The report, which outlines long-term capital assumptions for 2027, explores the predicted range of BTC returns. JPMorgan forecasts the 10-year annualized returns for Bitcoin under baseline, bullish, and bearish scenarios to be 10.0%, -11.2%, and 16.6%, respectively. Due to Bitcoin's historically unstable correlation with other assets and its extremely high volatility, JPMorgan did not include Bitcoin in the main covariance matrix but instead incorporated it into a simplified independent version. The matrix data shows that Bitcoin's 10-year annualized return baseline is a compound return rate of 10.0%, an arithmetic return rate of 20.9%, and an annualized volatility of 55.0%. BTC is projected to outperform core dollar assets such as cash, diversified bonds, and large-cap stocks, making it the best-performing asset over the next decade.

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