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Investment Banks Warn of Increased Selling Pressure on Hong Kong Stocks

On July 6, several new stocks were listed in Hong Kong over the past year, and with the gradual lifting of lock-up periods, an unprecedented wave of unlocks is expected to hit the market. Brokers believe this may add selling pressure to an already struggling Hong Kong stock market. Zhizhu (2513.HK) will have 25.6 million shares ending a six-month lock-up period on Wednesday, accounting for nearly 6% of its total issued shares. The stock price has risen over 12 times since its listing. Xiyu Technology (MiniMax) (0100.HK) and Tianshu Zhixin (9903.HK) will also see lock-up shares released this week, with 45% and 4.3% of their total issued shares unlocked, respectively. Morgan Stanley's report indicates that selling pressure in the secondary market will mainly concentrate in July and September. Even if the company's fundamentals remain robust, these unlock events may pose a liquidity challenge for the market; this is one of the key reasons for the bank's cautious stance on the Hong Kong market in the short term. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that $274 billion (approximately HKD 2.14 trillion) worth of lock-up shares will be released in the Hong Kong market over the next 12 months, marking a historical high. Based on historical experience, related stocks typically see a decline of 4% to 7% in price within 3 to 6 months after the lock-up period ends. The impressive returns from new stocks may further intensify profit-taking pressure. According to EY data, the average first-day gain for Hong Kong IPOs in the first half of this year was 61%, while the overall market performance has been relatively sluggish. The Hang Seng Index has dropped 8.9% year-to-date.

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