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Gold Price Drops Below $3950/oz as Investment Banks Lower Forecasts

On June 30, spot gold continued its downward trend, briefly falling below $3950 per ounce during the day, marking a decline of 1.75% and reaching a new low since November 2025, down approximately 29% from the historical high set in January of this year. As a result of the international gold price drop, several domestic brands have reduced the price of pure gold jewelry by about 25 to 30 yuan per gram in a single day. Among them, Chow Tai Fook's pure gold price dropped to 1208 yuan per gram, Lao Feng Xiang to 1206 yuan per gram, Chow Sang Sang to 1213 yuan per gram, and Lao Miao Gold to 1212 yuan per gram. With the ongoing adjustment in gold prices, several international investment banks have recently lowered their gold price targets. Goldman Sachs has revised its end-2026 gold target price from $5400 to $4900, maintaining a 'tactically cautious' stance due to factors including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations being pushed back to 2027 and the hawkish signals from the first meeting of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Other institutions such as Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and ANZ have also lowered their gold price forecasts recently. However, some institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold. Goldman Sachs stated that the gold bull market is not over, as central banks in emerging markets continue to diversify their reserves, which will support long-term demand; JPMorgan maintains its forecast that gold prices could rise to $6000 by the end of 2026, believing that the current adjustment is closer to a phase reset in prices rather than the end of a long-term bull market.

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