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Former Japanese Forex Chief: Yen May Be Undervalued by 20%, Shorts Should Beware of Intervention Risks

On July 6, Takao Yamazaki, former chief of Japan's Ministry of Finance and head of foreign exchange policy, stated in an interview that the yen should appreciate by up to 20% from its current level (approximately 130 yen to 1 dollar), refuting views that bet on further weakness of the yen. Yamazaki said, 'This is no longer a fundamental issue, but rather a question of how market expectations change. However, we are approaching a climax.' He believes that the current estimate of the yen being undervalued by 10% may be overly conservative. 'If the yen rises to around 130, I wouldn't be surprised. To be honest, that's my view.' Meanwhile, Yamazaki hinted that the market should not misinterpret the recent apparent calm of Japanese authorities as complacency. He stated, 'They have issued warnings; anyone still holding short positions on the yen knows they face the risk of intervention penalties—namely, being forced to cover their positions. The Ministry of Finance has moved beyond the warning stage, and the authorities have indicated their willingness to take action.'

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