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Federal Reserve Beige Book: High Oil Prices Impact All 12 Districts, Businesses Expect Further Price Increases

On October 15, the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicated that the U.S. economy continues to grow overall, but most industries are experiencing sluggish growth. Among the 12 Federal Reserve districts, two reported moderate economic growth, three reported slight growth, four reported minimal growth, and three were essentially flat. The manufacturing sector showed relatively strong performance, but consumer spending remained largely unchanged in most districts, with over half indicating that spending is primarily driven by high-income households. Regarding inflation, three districts reported strong price increases, eight reported moderate increases, and four indicated that price growth has accelerated compared to the previous period. All districts are affected by rising oil prices, with high diesel prices and fuel surcharges pushing costs along the supply chain; tariffs, insurance, and other commodity prices are also exerting continuous pressure. Some businesses expect prices to rise further in the coming months as existing contracts expire and hedging and delivery contracts are renegotiated. In terms of employment, most districts reported little change in employment levels, but there remains a shortage of skilled technical and professional workers. Five districts noted that some businesses have reduced their workforce through natural attrition after investing in artificial intelligence to enhance productivity, delayed hiring, or anticipated fewer new positions. Meanwhile, rising inflation and benefit costs are prompting employees to demand higher wages. The Beige Book noted that most businesses maintain a positive outlook on the economic prospects for the coming months, but they generally expect limited growth, continuing to be affected by energy prices, tariffs, and other uncertainties.

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