On July 3, Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, stated in this month's "In The Know" program that the June non-farm payroll report is filled with recession signals, but she disagrees. "If you only look at this employment report, you would think the U.S. is already in a recession." Despite a reduction of about 500,000 in household employment and non-farm payroll additions being only half of market expectations, Cathie Wood believes that the real issue is not the U.S. economy itself, but the economic data. Cathie Wood interpreted five key reform areas for the Federal Reserve proposed by former Fed governor candidate Kevin Warsh, including: Reducing market noise caused by frequent public speeches from Fed officials; Using data from private institutions to cross-verify potentially biased government statistics; Promoting greater transparency and decision-making efficiency within the Fed. Cathie Wood also noted that real-time data from Trueflation shows that the current overall inflation rate in the U.S. is only 1.75%, less than half of the official 4.2% CPI figure. This suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries may decline further; the current performance of the yield curve is very similar to that during the Industrial Revolution, reflecting that the market is preemptively sensing the risk of deflation.
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