On October 28, ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, an AI simulation decision-making system called Sim Fed completed seven simulated votes: five opted to maintain the current interest rate, while two supported a rate hike, aligning closely with the market's mainstream expectation of a pause this week. The system was developed by Tara Sinclair, chair of the economics department at George Washington University, and Sophia Kazinnik, a research scientist at Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab. The two invested approximately a year and a half into the project, with a preliminary research paper set to be published by the end of 2025. Researchers clarified that the aforementioned votes are results of a simulation experiment and do not reflect the Federal Reserve's actual decisions; the real monetary policy decision is expected to be announced at 2 AM Beijing time on October 29.
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AI Simulation System Sim Fed Previews October Rate Meeting: Seven Votes, Five for Pause
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Tether Launches FASE Foundation with 11 Partners
On October 28, Tether announced the establishment of the FASE (Financial Access and Systemic Empowerment Foundation) in Switzerland, a nonprofit multi-stakeholder foundation focused on four key pillars: financial security, financial freedom and inclusion, connectivity and clean energy, and access to end medical resources, as well as responsible AI and robotics. Founding stakeholders include Anchorage Digital, Bitfury, Bybit, Chainalysis, Fasanara Capital, Kraken, Opera, Pave Bank, Prosper Global (formerly Mercy Corps), Solana Foundation, and Tether, with technical consulting provided by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The first three projects include: forming a global youth alliance with the social enterprise Goodwall to provide digital education and fraud prevention tools to up to 10 million young people in high-risk areas in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia; piloting stablecoin humanitarian aid with Prosper Global, initially covering up to 1 million people as a template for future crisis response; and expanding cybercrime prevention networks in Africa, Asia, and Central America based on existing collaboration with UNODC, along with partnering with the United Nations Trust Fund for Victims of Trafficking to fund NGOs that assist survivors of human trafficking. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the most vulnerable populations have long been overlooked by traditional financial systems. Prior to the official launch, the founding members held a meeting in Lugano, Switzerland, to establish strategic priorities. -
Morgan Stanley Warns S&P 500 May Drop Another 8%
On October 28, Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated in a client report that a combination of AI financing pressures, the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and tightening financial conditions could push the S&P 500 index down to around 7100 points in the coming weeks, representing a decline of about 8% from recent levels. This would mark the largest adjustment since the market turmoil triggered by the Iran war earlier this year. The firm noted that approximately 60% of the Russell 3000 index components have fallen over 20% from their peaks since early June, and about 96% of semiconductor stocks have also declined by more than 20%. They anticipate that the semiconductor sector may drop an additional 10% to 15% before mid-November. Credit spreads on bonds related to data centers have widened, with CoreWeave's debt entering distressed territory this month. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, leading to rising bond yields. The firm maintains a year-end target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 and a fundamental target of 8300 points over the next 12 months, noting that markets typically perform better after midterm elections, with data from 1950 to 2022 showing an average increase of about 8% in the three months following elections. -
Israeli Parliamentary Election Vote Counting Completed, Netanyahu's Camp Currently Leads
On the 28th local time, according to Israeli sources, the vote counting for this round of Israeli parliamentary elections has been completed. The Likud party, led by current Prime Minister Netanyahu, remains in the lead with the highest percentage of valid votes counted so far. The Likud party continues to be the largest party in the parliament. However, there is a deadlock in the allocation of seats between Netanyahu's right-wing camp and the opposition camp led by Esenkot, with no single camp able to directly reach the majority of seats required to form a government. -
Anthropic IPO Filing Warns of Risks from Trump Administration Retaliation
On October 28, Bloomberg reported that in its IPO filing, Anthropic warned that its public advocacy for AI safety regulation and statements from executives could expose the company to risks such as government pressure and selective scrutiny. The document stated that even if other similarly situated companies are not treated equally, Anthropic could still become a target for specific government agencies, a risk associated with the company's multiple conflicts with the Trump administration: one stemming from disputes over the requirement for the U.S. Department of Defense to set safety limits when using its AI technology, and another related to disagreements over the safety and export controls of the Mythos model. The filing also indicated that future government interventions, export restrictions, and cybersecurity or biosafety incidents triggered by AI models could affect its product deployment, international expansion, and business growth. Furthermore, if the regulatory measures advocated by the company are implemented, compliance costs would rise, product development and release would be restricted, and its growth could slow down. Anthropic publicly submitted its S-1 filing on October 26, intending to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. -
Casap Completes $56 Million Series B Funding Led by Base10 Partners
On October 28, Fortune reported that financial AI startup Casap announced the completion of $56 million in Series B funding, led by Base10 Partners, with Synchrony and Experian participating as strategic investors. The company's total funding has reached $90 million. Founded in 2023, Casap's AI tools assist banks and credit card companies in handling disputes and chargebacks. The company disclosed that clients using the tool have seen first-party fraud losses reduced by up to 51%, with chargeback win rates increasing to 96%, compared to the industry average of 60%. The average dispute resolution time has been shortened to 8 days, while traditional methods can take up to 90 days. The valuation for this round has not been disclosed. -
Kalshi Plans to Tighten Deposit Restrictions for Users Under 21
On October 28, Bloomberg reported that Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the prediction market platform is discussing increased user protection measures with U.S. regulators due to research showing that most users are in a losing position. Kalshi is willing to accept raising the participation age threshold to 21 years. The specific measures include a monthly deposit limit of $2,500 for users under 21 and the establishment of special accounts to curb high-risk trading. Mansour noted that Kalshi is an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and does not directly act as a counterparty for user trades, with users' lost funds flowing to other traders. However, he also acknowledged the need for the platform to work with regulators to establish protective rules to address existing regulatory gaps. -
Thailand's Supreme Court Rules Bitcoin as 'Property' under Criminal Law
On October 28, Thailand's Supreme Court ruled in case No. 4929/2569 that Bitcoin constitutes 'property' in criminal cases. The case was brought by the Koh Samui Public Prosecutor against a defendant whose victim exchanged $50,000 (approximately 1.878 million Thai Baht) for Bitcoin and transferred it to a criminal gang. The court determined that the elements of property crime were established. The ruling stated that Bitcoin has value according to market conditions, can be exchanged for cash when there are buyers, and can be held by ordinary people, thus it is not an object of no value or intangible. Its value does not disappear simply because it is exchanged for Bitcoin instead of cash. The ruling also pointed out that the Bank of Thailand's position on cryptocurrencies not being legal tender is a separate issue from whether they constitute 'property'. The judgment referenced Article 137 of the Civil and Commercial Code and Sections 309(2), 340(1), and 340(3) of the Criminal Code. -
Sun Yuchen-Linked Address Transfers $48.76 Million in PEPE in 17 Days, Realizing a Profit of Approximately $9.62 Million
On October 28, according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), PEPE has surged over 14% in the last 24 hours, with its price returning above $0.000005. A wallet marked by Arkham as associated with Sun Yuchen has transferred a total of $48.76 million in PEPE since October 17, with a cost basis of approximately $0.000004115, currently realizing a profit of about $9.62 million. This batch of PEPE accounts for approximately 2.86% of the total supply, making this address the largest individual holder on-chain. -
BTC Falls Below $81,000
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Anthropic Plans IPO Valuation of Up to $1.5 Trillion, Asian Investors Shift to Crypto Derivatives
On October 28, Bloomberg reported that AI company Anthropic plans to go public with a valuation that could reach $1.5 trillion, and intends to invest approximately $800 billion in building computing infrastructure, benefiting companies like TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics. Due to strong subscription demand and related restrictions, it is challenging for Asian investors to participate directly, leading them to invest indirectly through crypto derivatives. OKX and Binance have launched perpetual contracts linked to Anthropic's valuation, while contracts on Hyperliquid's EntropyIO platform implied a valuation of about $1.88 trillion at one point. The report also noted that Anthropic's path to profitability remains uncertain, with high AI investment costs and intense industry competition, meaning such proxy investments could also be affected by factors from other industries.
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