The investment logic of the AI industry chain is undergoing a critical transition. The market focus is gradually shifting from popular core chip tracks such as GPU and HBM to segmented basic links such as power management and passive components. Goldman Sachs' latest industry analysis clearly favors the MLCC (multi-layer ceramic capacitor) track, significantly extending the industry's business cycle, and including global leader Murata Manufacturing in its core buy list, officially anchoring a new round of price increases and valuation reshaping of passive components under AI infrastructure. This also means that the AI driven industry dividend is no longer limited to core chips, but runs through the entire electronic supply chain, giving rise to long-term growth opportunities in segmented invisible tracks.

1、 Track logic iteration: neglected basic components become essential for AI infrastructure

As the most fundamental passive component in the electronics industry, MLCC has long been in a blind spot in the market, but it runs through all categories of electronic products such as smartphones, new energy vehicles, AI servers, high-performance computing devices, etc. It undertakes the core functions of voltage stabilization, filtering, and current regulation, and is the "cornerstone component" for the stable operation of all electronic devices.

With the rapid iteration of AI large models and intelligent computing power clusters, the power consumption of AI servers has significantly increased, and the power supply architecture of devices has become increasingly complex. The requirements for circuit stability and power management accuracy have undergone a qualitative change. Compared to consumer electronics, the demand for MLCC usage, performance, and stability in AI computing devices has doubled. The previously niche basic components have become a necessary support for AI infrastructure expansion, and demand elasticity has been completely opened up.

Unlike the short-term hype in the chip industry, the MLCC industry has a solid hardware upgrade logic. The continuous expansion of the AI industry is restructuring the supply and demand pattern of passive components, becoming the core driving force for the simultaneous increase in quantity and price on the track.

2、 Major revision of cycle expectations: industry prosperity extended to 2030, breaking the traditional cycle pattern

The biggest investment highlight of this round of MLCC track is Goldman Sachs' disruptive correction of the industry cycle. In the past, the market generally expected that the MLCC industry's current growth cycle would peak and fall back in 2028. But combined with the long-term trend of continuous expansion of AI infrastructure, Goldman Sachs has postponed the industry's business cycle by two years, extending it until 2030.

For the traditional MLCC industry, the industry itself has strong cyclicality, with a conventional rise and fall cycle of only 3-4 years, always alternating between supply and demand surplus and supply shortage. The significant increase in the duration of this cycle is not a short-term market correction, but a fundamental reshaping of the industrial logic. The continuous iteration of AI computing power and the ongoing construction of global computing infrastructure provide MLCC with sustained and long-term incremental demand, completely breaking the short-term fluctuation pattern of traditional industries and opening up a super long prosperous market.

3、 Core beneficiary target: Domestic and foreign leading companies usher in valuation reshaping

With the re pricing of the track value, top MLCC manufacturers at home and abroad are experiencing a dual dividend: sustained release of volume and upward valuation recovery. Goldman Sachs focuses on two core beneficiary companies, covering top tier players in both China and Japan.

Murata Manufacturing, the absolute leader in the global industry, firmly holds the top spot in the MLCC industry with its technological barriers, production capacity, and customer resources. After in-depth communication with the management of the company, Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Murata Productions and included it in the "Conviction List" with a target price of 5400 yen (approximately 33.88 US dollars), fully recognizing its leading premium and long-term growth potential in the AI era.

As a leading player in domestic passive components, Nantong Jianghai, a core target in China, is deeply bound to the domestic electronic supply chain and AI infrastructure industry, fully benefiting from the dual dividends of domestic substitution and AI demand. Goldman Sachs has given it a target price of 39.20 yuan, clearly optimistic about the growth potential of domestic MLCC manufacturers. This also indicates that the power management upgrade demand brought by AI is fully benefiting the entire passive component supply chain at home and abroad.

4、 The underlying logic of the industry: massive demand+low valuation, the invisible track is experiencing an explosion

The essential attribute of MLCC in the industry can be intuitively confirmed by the carrying capacity of various electronic products: an ordinary smartphone needs to carry over 1000 capacitors, and a new energy vehicle needs to carry thousands of capacitors. In 2017-2018, there was a concentrated outbreak of demand for smartphones and automotive electronics, which directly led to a large-scale shortage of MLCC and a significant extension of delivery cycles, highlighting its irreplaceable industrial position.

The current demand for AI computing devices is far exceeding the single market of consumer electronics and automotive electronics in the past, and has the characteristics of long-term, sustained, and large-scale. Against the backdrop of continuous iteration in the AI industry, MLCC is no longer a traditional cyclical component, but a core supporting element for computing infrastructure, and a long-term supply-demand tight balance pattern has been established.

5、 Investment perspective: Grasp the segmented dividends and rationally view track competition

The valuation differentiation of the current AI industry chain is obvious, with high valuations in popular chip tracks and low valuations in segmented passive component tracks such as MLCC. This is a high-quality direction for capital layout in the latter half of the AI market. However, investors still need to pay attention to two core points in the process of layout.

On the one hand, there are regional differences in the underlying transactions. Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, while Nantong Jianghai is deeply involved in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Compared to its US stock targets, there is a certain investment threshold that needs to be adapted to corresponding trading channels. On the other hand, the industry competition is fierce, except for Murata and Nantong Jianghai, TDK、 Samsung Electric and other companies also have strong competitiveness, and industry stock competition continues to exist.

Conclusion

The investment logic of the AI industry is shifting from "core chip speculation" to "full supply chain value mining". Passive components represented by MLCC have completely broken free from traditional cycle constraints, thanks to the super long business cycle brought by AI computing infrastructure. With the extension of the cycle from 2028 to 2030, the continuous tightening of supply and demand patterns, and the reshaping of leading valuations, MLCC has become the most certain hidden golden track for the next round of AI supply chain.