Welcome to the fourteenth issue of Free Mint where I share insights and ideas including catalysts, macro, new project launches, and more. Please note that none of this is Financial Advice. Please do your own research!

Thoughts on BTC

Not much to note as BTC is still ranging indecisively until one side gives. Bulls seem comfortable buying below $29k and bears have parked comfortably at $30k. Volume is still low, and it’s anyone’s guess where BTC goes from here.

If it does dump, I’m looking at $28k trendline support for an entry and another entry at the 4hr order block at around $27k. If those two levels get invalidated I may just DCA at support levels below and look for bullish PA at support.

With the lack of a notable pump with the Paypal news, I am personally leaning towards bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium to long term. Usually you want to see a convincing bounce on big news, not this continued indecision.

I think the Blackrock ETF decision is coming soon so that could be the catalyst for a break out in either direction. We will have to wait and see.

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Thoughts on Altcoins

Nothing much changed from last week in terms of ETH/BTC. Falling wedge hasn’t broke out yet. Also, not sure who needs to hear this but in most situations, you are better off holding BTC or ETH over altcoins. If you are looking at an altcoin to outperform, you should have a good reason for why you believe so.

This doesn’t mean that there aren’t periods where altcoins perform better but these times are usually limited and are usually during a bull market where there is actual capital flowing in. I wouldn’t be risk on for altcoins as holds unless there is a clear breakout in BTC and ETH that continue the uptrend.

Shitcoin Journals

Few things I learned about shitcoins this week. Lesson #1 is that smart wallet tracking is sometimes good for spotting potential new projects early for entries, but not great for exit strategies. I find that even high performing wallets tend to sell early without giving enough time for price action to work out.

Now this isn’t something out of the ordinary. Some shit coiners are trying to hit a breakout relatively quickly and would rather cut losses fast if the plan isn’t working out but this again highlights the need to make your own decisions and hone your own intuition.

I have also been wondering whether it’s better to just ape hyped coins at ATH and DCA down or just wait for the retracement instead. Both strategies seem legitimate but the answer is it really does depend on the project. In most situations, I see heavy retracements happen because people are so eager to sell these days.

Paypal launches their own stablecoin?

Don’t usually talk about the news that often but this piece seems significant. Paypal is launching their pyUSD stablecoin in collaboration with Paxos. How bullish this is depends on how hard Paypal pushes it to retail. Also, curious to see how the terms and conditions apply to the stablecoin. The more interesting aspect is that a stablecoin could be incredibly lucrative for Paypal itself, as the stablecoin will reportedly be partially backed by short term T-Bills. If the interest goes to the Paypal company itself and the stablecoin is widely used, that could be good money to the company.