BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who has projected Bitcoin to hit $250,000 this year, says he’d rather wait-and-see than invest in Bitcoin at the moment, holding off until the US Federal Reserve loosens its monetary policy.

“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Tuesday.

“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he said. Hayes said he will start buying when the Fed begins easing monetary policy:

“That's when I'm going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.”

Hayes said that while some argue “war is good for Bitcoin,” the more accurate view is that “money printing is good for Bitcoin.”

Hayes added he was unsure whether Bitcoin had reached its price bottom. Bitcoin is trading at $69,926 at the time of publication, down 45% from its October all-time high of $126,000, but Hayes warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions could push the price lower.

“[With] the unfortunate war between US and Iran, I think that there is a situation where the longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities and Bitcoin,” he said.

Hayes predicted $250,000 Bitcoin for 2026

Hayes explained that this may lead Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 and that “could be sort of a big cascading of liquidations down.” Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 level on Feb. 6 before edging into a mild uptrend.

Hayes usually shares strong convictions about Bitcoin and had held onto his $250,000 year-end prediction as late as October last year.

Other analysts are more confident about what will happen in the short term. Michaël van de Poppe recently pointed out the benefits for Bitcoin on the back of a “strong surge” in the Nasdaq.

“There are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and in that principle, I do think we'll see way more upside into Bitcoin & Altcoins during the coming period,” van de Poppe said.

Meanwhile, Hayes said he doesn’t anticipate there being many more years when Bitcoin will be “sub 100,000.”