Many analysts argue that the market is not rational, that all statistical indicators point to a bear market, and that a difficult series of declines and disappointments lies ahead.
The market participants are now divided into two teams:
- The bull team argues that the bottom has already been reached and that growth will be gradual.
- The bear team argues that the current rally is only temporary and that we are yet to reach the true bottom.
So, there are two opposing positions, but the truth is probably in the middle.
- We will undoubtedly experience steady growth, but not in an instant and most likely not now. The catalyst for growth will be mass adoption and products from the new paradigm; however, such products are still in the early to mid-development stages, and the market has not been completely cleansed of contamination: Luna, 3AC, FTX. The good news is that the market largely ignored Genesis’ bankruptcy and the threat posed by its parent company, DCG.
- We are unlikely to see a -50% drop in BTC/ETH in a single day, as we did in 2014–2017. However, in a very negative market, the price of BTC could reach $10–11 thousand and $700–800 for ETH. The only thing that matters is that we will essentially see such a scenario in two instances. 1) Binance/Coinbase bankruptcy and/or 2) regulators’ prohibition of any type of crypto activity. Judging by the current state of affairs and the way the market in general ignores negative FED forecasts and the bankruptcy of one of the leading companies, it can only be shaken and have a panic sell if something falls where most of the remaining market users’ deposits are located, and there are not many participants in this list.
March can be considered as the projected key month in 2023.
- FED returns from pause — new key rate adjustments and macro data
- Mt.Gox end of registration of refunds — the volume and timing of the execution are determined by market participants’ potential estimates of the pressure on the price of BTC exerted by affected Mt.Gox users. Payouts will be made in the amount of lost BTC at the current rate.
- Shanghai Upgrade on Ethereum — an opportunity to take ETH off the steak and risk that those who bought cheaper or more expensive will want to lock in profits or recoup some losses.
- FTX hearing — final report on FTX debt to users
Most likely, March will provide the general direction of the market in 2023, and while anything unexpected that occurs during the year will be a variance, the overall trend will remain the same.
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