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Upcoming Expiration of $13 Billion Bitcoin Options Favors Bears, Market Concerns Over Continued Decline This Month

On June 21, it was reported that approximately $13 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on June 26, with the current open interest structure clearly favoring bears, raising concerns that the downward trend may continue this month. Bitcoin has fallen about 14% so far in June, with most call options concentrated at $68,000 and above, leading to significant losses for bulls. Data from the options market shows that the Deribit platform holds $10.4 billion in open interest, accounting for 79% of the market share. Among this, call options have an open interest of $6 billion, but 78% is concentrated above $72,000, and with less than a week to expiration, the actual effective positions may shrink significantly; of the $4.5 billion in put options, only 28% bet on Bitcoin falling below $57,000, indicating a more robust bearish structure overall. According to current price trends, all four scenarios at the expiration on June 26 favor bears, with a net advantage ranging from $1 billion to $3.4 billion. Even if Bitcoin rebounds 12% from the current level of about $63,000, the outcome of this expiration is still unlikely to turn into a profit for bulls. The previous optimism among bulls stemmed from Strategy Company’s large purchase of approximately 62,841 Bitcoins between April and May, pushing prices above $73,000. However, subsequent continuous net outflows from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and setbacks in advancing the digital asset tax legislation have sharply reversed market sentiment. Analysts point out that while this options expiration does not lock in July's trends, it will exert pressure on bulls' confidence.

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