On June 22, Nomura Securities stated that the Federal Reserve's June meeting may not be an ordinary pause but could be viewed as a critical turning point marking the end of the credit cycle and the AI boom a decade from now. Naka Matsuzawa, Nomura's Chief Macro Strategist, pointed out in a recent report that the market has overestimated the urgency of immediate rate hikes by the Fed this year while severely underestimating the depth and persistence of the long-term rate hike path, showing a lack of caution towards real medium- to long-term risks. The firm anticipates that the Fed will likely remain on hold throughout 2026, and once the policy stance of Waller becomes clearer, along with inflation expectations being confirmed during a decline in oil prices, the current market pricing of about 1.5 rate hikes is expected to be swiftly adjusted. However, Matsuzawa emphasized that the real risk does not lie in whether the Fed raises rates once or twice this year, but rather in how likely these preventive measures could evolve into a complete and sustained tightening cycle.