On June 16, the market widely expects that the Bank of Japan will raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995 during a monetary policy meeting held without the presence of its governor. According to a survey by industry media, nearly all observers of the Bank of Japan anticipate that at the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, policymakers will increase the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1%. The Bank of Japan has previously stated that Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized for treatment of a liver cyst infection and will submit his opinions to the board in writing, without participating in the vote in person. This anticipated rate hike will be the first by the Bank of Japan since December of last year, coinciding with the central bank's efforts to address inflationary risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, despite a peace agreement being on the verge of formal signing. The market will closely monitor any clues regarding when the Bank of Japan may take further action, as traders are concerned that if the yen weakens, Japanese authorities may intervene in the foreign exchange market after the meeting concludes.
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Japan's Interest Rates May Enter '1 Era' for the First Time in Over 30 Years
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Nikkei 225 Index Surpasses 70,000 Points for the First Time
The Nikkei 225 Index has surpassed 70,000 points for the first time, reaching a historic high with a cumulative increase of 39% this year. -
Goldman Sachs: Expects Fed to Maintain Interest Rates in June Meeting, Low Likelihood of Rate Hike
On June 16, Goldman Sachs released a research report indicating that the most significant change in economic data since the last FOMC meeting is a substantial rebound in employment growth, putting the labor market on a more stable path. This has shifted the market's focus to whether inflation has reached a level severe enough to warrant a rate hike. However, Goldman Sachs believes the likelihood of a rate increase is low. The firm points out that, on one hand, the Fed has historically not raised rates due to oil price shocks, and on the other hand, the current environment reduces the chances of a self-reinforcing high inflation triggered by oil price shocks. That said, some concerning signs have emerged; if inflation expectations or the breadth of high-inflation categories show a significant increase, the likelihood of a rate hike will rise. Goldman Sachs anticipates that during the first June meeting under the new chair, the FOMC is likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and remove previous forward guidance that hinted at a rate cut. The firm expects the meeting statement will only remove the phrase regarding the 'extent and timing of additional adjustments' related to the federal funds rate. -
Hikvision Raises Hard Drive Prices Effective July 1, Sources Indicate Over 50% Cost Increase in Q3
On June 16, it was reported that Hikvision has recently issued a price adjustment notice to its distributors, stating that the prices of its hard drive products will be increased starting July 1 of this year. Additionally, before July 1, other products under Hikvision will also undergo a price increase. This hard drive price adjustment primarily targets the distributor channel. In light of the current situation of significant supply and price fluctuations, Hikvision has advised distributors to quickly lock in orders and prices. This is not the first time Hikvision has adjusted prices, nor is it an isolated incident. According to informed sources, the main reason for this price adjustment is the sustained squeeze effect caused by the explosive growth in AI demand. The procurement costs for hard drives continue to rise, with the factory cost quotes for Q3 increasing by over 50% compared to Q2 of this year. Given the current market conditions, there is a possibility of continued price increases in the near future. -
Bank of Japan Adjusts Bond Purchase Plan for July to September
On June 16, the Bank of Japan announced plans to purchase 355 billion yen of 1 to 3-year Japanese government bonds twice a month from July to September (previously three times a month for 255 billion yen). The plan includes purchasing 320 billion yen of 3 to 5-year Japanese government bonds twice a month (previously three times a month for 230 billion yen). Additionally, the bank will buy 335 billion yen of 5 to 10-year Japanese government bonds twice a month (previously three times a month for 240 billion yen). It also plans to purchase 100 billion yen of 10 to 25-year Japanese government bonds twice a month (previously three times a month for 80 billion yen). Lastly, the plan includes purchasing 75 billion yen of ultra-long-term (remaining maturity of over 25 years) Japanese government bonds twice a month (previously twice a month for 75 billion yen). -
Bank of Japan: Prepared to Modify Bond Purchase Reduction Plan if Necessary in Future Policy Meetings
On June 16, the Bank of Japan stated that it will respond flexibly if long-term interest rates rise rapidly, such as by increasing the purchase of Japanese government bonds and implementing fixed-rate bond purchase operations. It is prepared to modify the bond purchase reduction plan in future policy meetings if necessary. -
Bank of Japan: Need to Pay Special Attention to Future Developments in the Middle East and Their Impact on Financial Markets, Economy, and Prices
On June 16, the Bank of Japan stated that it is currently necessary to pay special attention to the future developments in the Middle East and their impact on financial markets, foreign exchange markets, the economy, and prices. It is essential to monitor global demand related to artificial intelligence and the future fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and their effects on the Japanese economy and prices. -
Bank of Japan: Accommodative Financial Environment Expected to Persist After Policy Rate Adjustment
On June 16, the Bank of Japan stated that it expects the accommodative financial environment to continue after the adjustment of the policy rate, providing strong support for economic activities. -
Morgan Stanley: Hard Drive Shortage to Last at Least Until 2028, Seagate and Western Digital Set for Major Gains
On June 16, Morgan Stanley significantly raised the target prices for Seagate Technology and Western Digital in a notice to clients, citing a survey in Asia that indicates the hard drive cycle is extending, with shortages expected to last at least until 2028. Analyst Erik Woodring raised Seagate's target price from $767 to $1,035 and Western Digital's target price from $488 to $650, maintaining an overweight rating for both. Woodring stated, "Our surveys in Asia over the past three weeks clearly show that the hard drive cycle is extending—shortages are expected to last at least until 2028—and also indicate that hard drive prices are strengthening significantly and meaningfully." The firm estimates that HDD demand is growing by 40% to 50% annually, while supply is increasing closer to 30% to 35%. Morgan Stanley noted that this gap is driving the shortage to "last at least until 2028." -
Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points as Expected
On June 16, the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate by 25 basis points, increasing the target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations. This decision follows three consecutive meetings where rates remained unchanged. -
Bank of Japan to Halt Bond Purchase Reduction from April 2027
On June 16, the Bank of Japan announced that it will suspend the reduction of bond purchases starting from April 2027, maintaining the monthly purchase scale of Japanese government bonds at approximately 2 trillion yen. The current plan to reduce the monthly purchase scale of Japanese government bonds by 200 billion yen will remain unchanged until the first quarter of 2027.
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