On June 16, Goldman Sachs released a research report indicating that the most significant change in economic data since the last FOMC meeting is a substantial rebound in employment growth, putting the labor market on a more stable path. This has shifted the market's focus to whether inflation has reached a level severe enough to warrant a rate hike. However, Goldman Sachs believes the likelihood of a rate increase is low. The firm points out that, on one hand, the Fed has historically not raised rates due to oil price shocks, and on the other hand, the current environment reduces the chances of a self-reinforcing high inflation triggered by oil price shocks. That said, some concerning signs have emerged; if inflation expectations or the breadth of high-inflation categories show a significant increase, the likelihood of a rate hike will rise. Goldman Sachs anticipates that during the first June meeting under the new chair, the FOMC is likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and remove previous forward guidance that hinted at a rate cut. The firm expects the meeting statement will only remove the phrase regarding the 'extent and timing of additional adjustments' related to the federal funds rate.