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Analysis: Trump-Harris debate uncertainty weighs on stocks and cryptocurrencies

QCP Capital analysts believe that the uncertainty surrounding the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Tuesday night is affecting the US stock market and, in turn, the cryptocurrency market. The analysts pointed out: "Macro-economic uncertainty is currently dominating the cryptocurrency market, with a 30-day correlation with the MSCI Global Stock Index reaching 0.6, the highest level in nearly two years."

A QCP Capital departmental report stated that activity in the derivatives market is active, and investors expect volatility to increase before and after tonight's Trump-Harris debate at 9 pm Eastern Time. The analyst added: "We see a lot of buying, with 400 Bitcoin options contracts expiring on September 11th, with a strike price of $57,500."

Opinion: Ethereum network growth hits a 4-month high, ETH price may rise to $3,900

On September 10th, Santiment, a market intelligence platform, disclosed the recent positive changes in the Ethereum network on the X platform. According to data from Sanbase Pro, the growth level of the Ethereum network has significantly improved, indicating that cryptocurrency will become active again and is expected to have a bullish trend.

It is reported that on September 8th, the number of new wallet addresses created on the Ethereum network was about 126,210. Surprisingly, despite Sunday being typically the least active day of the week, the network still recorded the highest growth momentum in four months, setting a new milestone.

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Tardigrade believes that the Ethereum price trend has entered a "double bottom" pattern, and the "W structure" may indicate that its price may soon undergo a reversal, and this rise may push the Ethereum price up to $3,900.

Another cryptocurrency analyst, Ali Martinez, revealed that Ethereum whales may have lost interest in cryptocurrency and pointed out that they stopped accumulating ETH in early July, and since then have turned to selling or reallocating their holdings.

Bloomberg: The options market focuses on the Federal Reserve meeting before the US election, and the panic in the crypto market intensifies

The US presidential election has gradually faded from people's sight, and investors' attention has shifted to the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. Any policy mistakes could disrupt the market, which is already nervous due to signs of economic growth slowdown. Rocky Fishman, founder of derivatives analysis company Asym500, said, "The main focus of the market in recent times may be on the Federal Reserve and the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle. Although stock options have reflected higher risks around the election day, the actual trading volume of options related to the election has been limited." Traders are also waiting for the debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday to further determine their bets on who will win the election. Investors will analyze the candidates' positions on issues such as tariffs, immigration policies, and corporate taxes. John Divine, head of over-the-counter trading at digital asset trading and technology company Block Fills, said that the short-term positioning of Bitcoin is exceptionally bleak. He said, "The current bet is bearish before October 25th, and slightly bullish before the election. When looking at November, we begin to see that the call options are trading at higher prices than the put options, but this is not the case, which is quite shocking to me and highlights the panic in the market." Divine added that although Trump is more favored by the cryptocurrency market, the boundaries of who supports the crypto industry are becoming increasingly blurred. "I don't think the market is trading entirely for the winner of the November election. More importantly, they are using this event to push the narrative that fits the current bearish stance."

Citigroup and other major banks' forecasts of a 50 basis point rate cut are about to face a big test

The US non-farm payroll data released on Friday will be the biggest test for Citigroup and JPMorgan, who are betting boldly on a 50 basis point rate cut in September. For more than a year, forex traders have never been as excited as they are now before the release of the US employment report. On the eve of the key non-farm payroll data release, options used to measure the trend of the US dollar against major trading partners' currencies hit the highest level since March 2023. Risk reversal data shows that the dollar is pervaded by bearish sentiment. Since the weak July non-farm payroll data was released on August 2, Citigroup and JPMorgan have been predicting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November, and by 25 basis points in December. Interest rate swap contracts show that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points at the September 17-18 meeting is about 35%, but traders and economists believe that the most likely scenario is a 25 basis point cut.

Putin: Russia "supports" Harris, calls her smile "contagious"

According to foreign media such as TASS and Russia's Sputnik News, Jinse Finance reported that on the afternoon of September 5th local time, Russian President Putin said at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum 2024 that Russia will "support" the US Democratic Party presidential candidate and vice president Harris as recommended by the US President Biden in the upcoming US presidential election. When asked how he viewed the 2024 US election, Putin said it was the choice of the American people. The new US president will be elected by the American people, and Russia will respect the choice of the American people. Putin also said that just as Biden suggested his supporters to support Harris, "we will do the same, we will support her." The report said that Putin also joked that Harris' laughter is "expressive and infectious," which shows that "she is doing everything well." He added that this may mean that she will avoid further sanctions against Russia.

Uniswap Labs CEO: Some scammers are using hacked UN accounts for phishing, please be careful to identify them

Uniswap Labs CEO Hayden Adams posted on X platform that scammers are using compromised UN accounts or other accounts with grey checkmarks to send direct messages to cryptocurrency users. These messages often contain enticing proposals or requests aimed at tricking users into clicking on malicious links or providing personal information. This is a scam, do not reply or interact with these messages, simply ignore them. If you have any doubts, please verify the authenticity of your account through official channels.

Five suspected cryptocurrency fraud gang members sentenced to prison in South Korea

According to local media reports, five individuals in South Korea who were involved in cryptocurrency fraud have been sentenced to prison for deceiving a private investor of $7.5 million. They made false promises to exchange cash at prices lower than the market rate.

Citigroup and other major banks' forecasts of a 50 basis point rate cut are about to face a big test

The release of US non-farm payroll data on Friday will be the biggest test for Citigroup and JPMorgan, who have boldly bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September. For more than a year, foreign exchange traders have never been as excited as they are now before the release of the US employment report. Options used to measure the trend of the US dollar against major trading partners' exchange rates hit the highest level since March 2023 on the eve of the key non-farm payroll data release. Risk reversal data shows a pervasive bearish sentiment for the US dollar. Since the weaker-than-expected July non-farm payroll data was released on August 2, Citigroup and JPMorgan have predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in both September and November, and by 25 basis points in December. Interest rate swap contracts show that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the September 17-18 meeting is about 35%, but traders and economists believe that a 25 basis point cut is still the most likely.

Jupiter Alliance: Proposes to use the unclaimed 230 million JUP to extend and fund the ASR

Meow, co-founder of Jupiter, proposed using the 230 million unclaimed JUP tokens from the first Jupuary to extend and fund future ASRs. If there are no major objections, we will submit a formal proposal and hold a vote next week.

Foreign media: Musk faces threats, record marketers cut advertising spending on X platform

According to a report from the Financial Times, the number of advertisers planning to withdraw from X next year has reached a record high due to concerns about association with extreme content, undermining Elon Musk's efforts to turn the company's finances around. According to a global survey of industry executives conducted by analysis group Kantar, 26% of marketers plan to cut advertising spending on X in 2025, the largest drop recorded by major advertising platforms worldwide. Since taking over X in 2022, Musk has decided to relax content moderation in the spirit of free speech, leading major brands to withdraw from X. The survey shows that trust in the platform among advertisers has significantly declined over the past year, with only 4% of marketers saying that advertising on X is "brand safe," compared to 39% for Google.