On June 21, approximately 13 billion USD worth of Bitcoin options will expire on June 26. The current open interest structure is clearly favorable to bears, raising concerns that the downward trend may continue this month. Bitcoin has dropped about 14% so far in June, with most call options concentrated at price levels of 68,000 USD and above, resulting in significant losses for bulls. Data from the options market shows that the Deribit platform holds 10.4 billion USD in open interest, accounting for 79% of the market share. Among this, the open interest for call options reaches 6 billion USD, but 78% is concentrated above 72,000 USD. With less than a week until expiration, the actual effective open interest may shrink significantly; of the 4.5 billion USD in put options, only 28% bet on Bitcoin dropping below 57,000 USD, indicating a more robust bearish structure overall. Based on the current price trend, all four scenarios at expiration on June 26 favor bears, with a net advantage ranging from 1 billion to 3.4 billion USD. Even if Bitcoin rebounds 12% from the current level of about 63,000 USD, the outcome of this expiration is still unlikely to turn into a profit for bulls. The previous optimism among bulls stemmed from Strategy Company’s large-scale purchase of approximately 62,841 Bitcoins between April and May, which pushed the price above 73,000 USD. However, subsequent continuous net outflows from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and stalled progress on digital asset tax legislation caused market sentiment to plummet. Analysts point out that while the outcome of this options expiration does not lock in the trend for July, it will exert pressure on bullish confidence.
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