The global AI semiconductor market is experiencing a sharp divergence. Last Friday, the semiconductor sector in the US stock market experienced a significant drop, and panic continued to spread, directly triggering an extreme plunge in the South Korean stock market on Monday. The South Korean KOSPI index fell nearly 9% during the trading session, triggering a circuit breaker mechanism. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two major semiconductor leaders, led the way in heavy losses, and the market's argument about "the end of the AI bull market and the peak of the semiconductor cycle" quickly fermented.

But during the window of extreme panic in the market, a key industrial event shattered one-sided pessimistic expectations. Nvidia founder Huang Renxun made a high-profile visit to South Korea, closely connecting with top technology companies in South Korea. He officially announced a long-term deep cooperation with SK Hynix, and increased the research and development of new generation memory products for AI data centers. On one hand, there is a frenzy of secondary market capital fleeing and valuation trampling, while on the other hand, the core leaders of the industrial chain continue to bind to the supply chain and increase long-term layout. The huge market and industry temperature difference has completely revealed the real logic of this round of semiconductor crash.

1、 Source of the sharp decline: panic is not endogenous to South Korean stocks, it is the clearing of global AI trading congestion

The extreme correction in the South Korean stock market this round is not due to the deterioration of the domestic economy or corporate fundamentals, but rather a chain result of global semiconductor valuation reassessment and the concentrated withdrawal of AI crowded trading.

The trigger for the market trend began in the US stock market last Friday. On that day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a rare single day drop in recent years, with core AI infrastructure targets such as Broadcom and Micron experiencing a deep and synchronized correction. After a sustained bull market, market funds have begun to collectively re-examine the risk exposure of overvalued technology sectors, actively reducing their positions in the AI track and avoiding the risk of high-level pullbacks.

The South Korean stock market has become the biggest pressure for global capital to adjust positions in this round. In the past year, the upward logic of the South Korean capital market has completely deviated from the fundamentals of the local economy, with a highly single core driving force, relying entirely on the boom in AI data center construction, high demand for HBM, and the expansion dividends of Nvidia's industrial chain.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix hold a high weight in the South Korean index, creating a unique market attribute for the South Korean stock market: it is no longer simply a national index, but more equivalent to a global large-scale AI memory themed ETF. When global funds invest in AI infrastructure, the Korean market is the optimal entry point for allocation; When funds retreat from safe haven and shrink their AI positions, South Korea will inevitably become a priority target for fund selling, ultimately leading to a much larger decline in the Korean stock market than the domestic semiconductor sector in the US stock market this round.

2、 Core contrast: Market panic escapes, but the industry chain is adding long-term certainty

The most critical contradiction in this round of market trend lies in the panic of valuation in the secondary market and the serious deviation from the fundamentals of the primary industry chain.

The current selling behavior in the market is essentially a concern about the high valuation of the AI track, worrying about the peak of HBM demand growth and the decline of AI infrastructure construction dividends. But the series of actions taken by Huang Renxun during his emergency visit to South Korea directly denied the pessimistic expectation of "AI demand collapse".

During his trip to South Korea, Huang Renxun had intensive meetings with leading South Korean technology companies such as SK Group, Samsung Electronics, LG, and NAVER. The core action was highly directional: to finalize a multi-year strategic cooperation with SK Hynix and jointly develop a new generation of memory products suitable for AI data centers. As the core demander and largest purchaser of the global AI industry chain, Nvidia's long-term cooperation decision has strong industry benchmark significance.

If the AI cycle is really coming to an end and the demand for data center construction is about to decline, Nvidia does not need to actively deepen its deep binding with the core supply chain in South Korea and lay out the next generation of technology products at the market panic point. From the perspective of industry implementation, there is currently no effective evidence in the market to prove a cliff like decline in the real demand for AI.

Simply put, there is a clear cognitive gap between the capital market's concerns about "peak valuation" in trading and the industry leaders' plans for "growth in the coming years".

3、 Switching the underlying logic of the market: The AI track enters the "profit revaluation era" from the "general rise era"

The severe fluctuations in the global semiconductor and AI sectors this round are not a signal of the end of the cycle, but a fundamental shift in the valuation logic of the track.

In the past year, the AI industry has been in a pure beta phase of general rise, and the market trading logic is extremely simple: as long as the overall demand for AI continues to expand, companies in the entire industry chain can enjoy valuation and stock price increases. Whether it is GPU, memory, optical module or server manufacturers, as long as they are involved in AI, they can obtain a capital premium, and the industry presents a comprehensive upward trend.

But as the valuation of the sector continues to rise and the market continues to overdraw expectations, the market has entered a new stage of differentiation. Funds are no longer satisfied with the macro narrative of 'AI will continue to grow', but instead focus on the core issue: which companies' reports will ultimately be deposited with the massive profits created by AI growth?

From the previous adjustment of Rubin cabinet memory and the valuation fluctuations after Broadcom's financial report, to the collective decline of Korean semiconductor stocks in this round, the essence is the market's re decomposition and screening of the profit pool of the AI industry chain.

Seemingly similar AI industry chain targets have vastly different core competitiveness, pricing power, and profit realization capabilities: SK Hynix relies on HBM to monopolize dividends, Samsung Electronics covers multiple tracks including HBM, general DRAM, and advanced packaging, and Micron focuses on upgrading AI servers and general memory. The profit logic and supply-demand position of each company are completely different.

This also explains the reason for the high volatility of the current sector: the industry has bid farewell to the era of "everyone lying down to win" in the general rise, and funds have begun to finely verify the fundamentals, profit realization ability, and industry barriers one by one. A supply chain news, a corporate capital expenditure adjustment, or a financial report guidance can all trigger severe fluctuations in the sector. The core proposition of AI investment has shifted from "whether AI is growing" to "who can reap the real profits of AI growth".

4、 Core judgment for the future: The market is never determined by Korean stocks, but by global AI fundamentals

The current circuit breaker plunge in the South Korean stock market is not the beginning of a new bear market, but a concentrated deleveraging behavior of high-level crowded trading. The future trend of Korean stocks and the global semiconductor market is not determined by the domestic market in Korea, but depends on three core variables: the sustainability of NVIDIA orders, the global HBM supply and demand pattern, and the pace of capital expenditures by overseas cloud vendors.

If the subsequent GPU shipment volume, data center construction progress, and HBM procurement demand continue to maintain high prosperity, then this round of sharp decline is only a short-term sentiment clearing and chip exchange in the high valuation track, and the sector will return to fundamental driving after negative factors land; On the contrary, if the core demand data for AI continues to weaken, this round of adjustment will only be the beginning of a deep regression in valuation.

Conclusion

The current AI semiconductor market is in a period of mismatch between emotional bottom and industry bottom. The extreme panic in the secondary market reflects the emotional risk aversion and trading clearance under high valuations; The continuous cooperation, technological iteration, and long-term expansion of industry chain leaders confirm that AI infrastructure construction is still in its early stages, and the long-term growth logic of the industry has not been overturned.

The AI bull market has not ended, but has completely bid farewell to the general inflation foam and officially entered the high-quality growth stage of strong differentiation, performance oriented and cash based. The panic market caused by short-term capital stampede will eventually return to the real industrial fundamentals.

Associated targets: 000660.KS, 005930.KS, NVDA, MU, AVGO, EWY, SOXX