Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

How to Find and Analyze Trends on Farcaster

From Andrew Hong

What Open Social Data Enables

This is the first time in history that three datasets have come together in the open:

  • High quality user transaction data (blockchain data)
  • High quality social graph data (profiles, followers, and actions)
  • Verified linkage of addresses (user X owns wallets A,B,C)

And on top of that, these datasets have come together in a vertically integrated data stack (Neynar for Farcaster data, and Dune for onchain data) that is open for everyone to use.

Doing the equivalent with reddit, twitter, plaid, and stripe data would take hundreds of thousands of dollars to scrape and build data infra for. This leads to a concentration of data wealth and product in the hands of a select few companies (those overflowing with money and connections).

I’ve built a dashboard that combines the three datasets above and showcases some basic clustering and trends across words, users, and channels.

📊 Farcaster Trends Explorer Dashboard

Contribute to the methodology in the dashboard GitHub repo

🔔Use our Farcaster query templates and set some Slack/Discord alerts

Let’s walk through the kinds of trends and analysis you can kickoff from here.

Words and Topics

Most people have seen screenshots from google trends before. You get to put in any word and see the interest/performance over time:

Here’s a simple example of week over week “word” trends on Farcaster, week over week:

TF-IDF explained

Some column definitions:

  • Word: each word is isolated from every cast in the last 14 days
  • Casters: number of users who included a given word in their cast
  • TF: term frequency, or number of times this word appeared in casts.
  • IDF: inverse document frequency - basically the higher this is, the more unique the word is. I used each caster as a “document”, so in this context a higher IDF means it was cast by less people.
  • TF-IDF: the multiplication between frequency and uniqueness measures

You can immediately get a high quality view of what’s trending in the Farcaster ecosystem, with a single SQL query. This query is easily extensible to filter for trending words on a subset of users or channels, and for you to apply your own measurements on top.

Now, you’ll also notice that I filtered on casts only from “active badge” users. Let’s get into how I labeled users next.

User Labels and Trends

Okay, let’s take it to the next level now. I want to be able to identify the quality of a user and then rank users based on age, Farcaster activity, and onchain activity. For this dashboard, I came up with the following five tiers:

  • 🤖 npc: Less than 400 followers
  • 🥉 active: 400+ followers, 1+ casts, 100+ engagement score
  • 🥈 star: 1k+ followers, 5+ casts, 5k+ engagement score
  • 🥇 influencer: 10k+ followers, 10+ casts, 25k+ engagement score
  • 💎 vip: 50k+ followers, 10+ casts, 50k+ engagement score

Where engagement score is [likes + recasts*3 + replies*10] and only “received (R)” actions are counted to this score. It’s likely you could use actions “given” as part of user tiering too, but just measuring casts felt good enough to me for a basic model.

Out of 83k users who sent a cast in the last 14 days, about 3k of them are higher quality users. With this in mind, we can create a leaderboard of these users:

I can not only see that are Dan (dwr) and Vitalik the top followed users on the platform, but also that Vitalik is active in the “geopolitics” channel and mainly shares either his own blogs (vitalik.eth.limo) or github links, and that Dan has been very active in deploying contracts (198 contracts deployed).

Let me cover some of the more complex column definitions:

  • Channels: This is the number of channels that a user casted in (over the last 14 days)
  • Top Channels: These are the top three channel-ids that a user casted in, ranked by number of user casts in them.
  • Top Domains: These are the top three domains found in links that a user casted, ranked by number of times the domain appears
  • Txs, Volume, Contract Deploys: These are the all-time totals across all verified addresses, across all EVM chains that Dune currently covers.

Now, what if I want to add filters to see trending users based on some criteria? For example “show me the trending users based on engagement that @jessepollak has followed, who are less than 7 days old.” This will then give me a list of users that I might consider as the “potential new builders on Base”.

You’ll see there are also “user channel filter” and “held token address” filters there too. That means that I could filter for trending users in only a given channel, or trending users who have ever held the Nouns token. The possible combinations here are endless, I’ve only added six parameters that I thought were useful - but you can fork the query and add your own!

Channel Labels and Trends

Channels are like “subreddits”, where they have followers who cast inside them and hosts who manage the channel. I’ve created five tiers of channels:

  • 💤 quiet: less than 5 casts and less than 50 engagement score
  • 🍻 friends: 5+ casts, 50+ engagement score
  • 🔍 niche: 25+ casts, 5,000+ engagement score, 100+ casters
  • 🎭 subculture: 100+ casts, 25,000+ engagement score, 50+ rising stars and 2+ influencers/vips
  • 👑 stadium: 250+ casts, 100,000+ engagement score, 10+ influencers/vips

The idea here is that by combining user tiers and channel tiers, you can get a much better sense of which channels are high signal. Let’s start off with an all active channels ranking:

I’ve sorted by “engagement” here, and you’ll notice that not all high engagement channels are “stadiums”. This is because there are plenty of channels with a large concentration of “npc” or “active” users, but not many “star”, “influencer”, or “vip” users. I still consider these to be pretty niche.

Covering some column definitions again:

  • Top Influential Casters: These are the top three influencer/vip tier users, ordered by number of casts in channel in the last 14 days
  • 🤖,🥉,🥈 ,🥇 ,💎: The emojis in the table match up with the emojis I used for user tiers. This measures the number of users in a tier who sent a cast in the last week in that channel
  • Avg Txs, Volume, Contract Deploys: I took the average of these onchain metrics across all users with at least one transaction (columns are on the far right). I think there is still more work to be done here to make this a strong channel signal.

So for the trending view, I might want to see which channels are under 7 days old but have the highest number of “influencers” actively casting in them:

I quickly find that there are a bunch of niche channels like “superbowl”, “donothing”, and “consumercrypto” that seem to be popular with influencers but not have that much engagement or other users in there yet. I could use this information to try and join channels early, to grow my own account and relationships.

You can also filter by trending channels given a “username filter”, i.e. what are the trending channels Vitalik is a part of. Or filter based on “channel held token address”, which if you put in Nouns would show you channels trending amongst Nouns holders.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • U.S. Stock Index Futures Rise Sharply, S&P 500 Futures Up 0.4%

    U.S. stock index futures have risen sharply in the short term, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4%.

  • BlackRock Transfers 1,587 BTC and 17,815 ETH to Coinbase

    On May 22, according to OnchainLens monitoring, BlackRock transferred 1,587 BTC, valued at approximately $122.55 million, and 17,815 ETH, valued at approximately $37.79 million, to Coinbase.

  • CATL Plans to Invest in DeepSeek

    On May 22, two insiders revealed that CATL intends to participate in the financing activities of the domestic artificial intelligence company DeepSeek. As this investment materializes, CATL is actively expanding its business by selling power supply equipment to artificial intelligence data centers. The insiders indicated that DeepSeek's first round of financing aims to raise approximately 50 billion yuan (equivalent to 7.35 billion USD), with the fundraising expected to be completed as early as next month. Previous reports suggested that after this round of funding, DeepSeek's valuation could exceed 350 billion yuan (equivalent to 51.4 billion USD). Relevant parties stated that JD.com and NetEase are also in talks regarding equity participation, although the investment details have not yet been finalized. Discussions among all parties are ongoing, and details such as the investment amount and final investors may still change. (Sina Finance)

  • Trump: Stock Market Hits New All-Time High

    On May 22, President Trump announced that the stock market has reached a new all-time high.

  • Futu and Tiger Brokers Users' Funds at Risk of Withdrawal May Reach $175 Billion

    On May 22, according to Futu's Q4 2025 financial report, as of December 31, 2025, the total customer assets on the Futu platform reached HKD 1.23 trillion (approximately USD 158.4 billion). Additionally, a report on Futu released by China Merchants International on March 16 of this year indicated that analysts from the bank stated that over 80% of the customer assets on the Futu platform are from the Greater China region. If the user funds on the Futu platform remain unchanged (showing little variation from Q3 to Q4 last year), then in the ongoing serious crackdown by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on illegal cross-border operations, the user funds affected and potentially withdrawn from Futu alone would amount to at least approximately USD 126.7 billion (with a two-year rectification period for cleaning up existing businesses). If calculated at the same level, the affected user funds at Tiger Brokers (with an AUM of USD 60.8 billion in the Q4 2025 report) could be approximately USD 48.6 billion. Thus, the total affected user funds at both Futu and Tiger Brokers in this incident could reach approximately USD 175 billion.

  • Two Departments: Jointly Implementing a More Proactive Fiscal Policy and Moderately Loose Monetary Policy

    On May 22, it was reported that the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held the fourth leadership meeting of their joint working group. The meeting fully acknowledged the achievements made this year through the collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China. In-depth discussions were held on topics such as supporting the stable operation of financial markets, improving the coordination between fiscal and financial policies, and promoting the development of the offshore RMB bond market. Moving forward, the joint working group mechanism will continue to play a role in communication and coordination, jointly implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. (Ministry of Finance)

  • Futu and Tiger Stocks Plunge Over 40%

    On May 22, ahead of the US stock market opening, both Futu and Tiger experienced a decline of over 40%. The news comes after the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the illegal cross-border operations of Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao violated China's securities, fund, and futures laws and regulations, disrupting market order and must be firmly dealt with. According to relevant regulations, the CSRC plans to confiscate all illegal gains of Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao's domestic and foreign related entities and impose severe penalties according to the law.

  • Futu Drops Over 12%, Tiger Brokers Falls Over 16%

    On May 22, ahead of the U.S. stock market opening, Futu plunged over 12% and Tiger Brokers dropped over 16%. In the news, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the illegal cross-border business activities of Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao violated China's securities, fund, and futures laws and regulations, disrupting market order and must be firmly cracked down upon. According to relevant regulations, the CSRC plans to confiscate all illegal gains of Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao's domestic and foreign entities, and impose severe penalties according to the law.

  • China Securities Regulatory Commission Plans Severe Penalties for Tiger Brokers, Futu Securities, and Changqiao Securities

    On May 22, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the illegal cross-border business activities of Tiger Brokers (NZ) Limited, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited, and Changqiao Securities (Hong Kong) Limited violated China's securities, fund, and futures laws and regulations, disrupting market order and must be firmly dealt with. In accordance with relevant regulations, the CSRC plans to confiscate all illegal gains of Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao's domestic and foreign entities and impose severe penalties according to the law. (Xinhua News Agency)

  • DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng Announces Commitment to Achieving General Artificial Intelligence with $10 Billion Funding

    On May 22, sources revealed that DeepSeek's senior management informed potential investors during its ongoing $10 billion funding round that the startup will prioritize groundbreaking AI research over short-term commercialization. Additionally, it has been reported that founder Liang Wenfeng pledged in at least one investor meeting that the company will continue to develop open-source artificial intelligence models, working towards the long-term goal of achieving general artificial intelligence. The company's core mission is to push the boundaries of technology, with profitability not being the primary objective.