Here I am going to give a run down of bitcoin and altcoin market cycles, how to identify the cycles and how you can use this data to corroborate. The simple fact is, no one wants to deal with low liquidity and 1% price ranges, we all want the 10x in a single trade degen plays.

Basic mean reversion theory

Mean reversion is the theory of price oscillating around a long term trend line. Most people that have had any length of trading will know The “Wall street cheat sheet” This is an expanded version of the mean reversion theory, but as can be seen, the fundamentals remain the same.

We start at desbelief, make a run to highs and drop below the long term trend line at capitulation, retest it at anger then reclaim this trend line at disbelief. This theory applies to cryptocurrency, focusing more on Bitcoin as a market catalyst we spend less time below the long term trendline, factors like being the best performing asset since inception should be thanked for this. Taking into account the Covid drop was a black swan event we will disregard this data. I have marked two market cycles, after a market cycle the trend line becomes more aggressive.

Below we can see how the 2020–2023 trendline was formed

We can see that pivot one was taken from the point price fell through the 0.382 fib retracement and touched the old long term trend line, and pivot two was taken where the resistance line from the two highs met the 0.618 level. This is an ‘ish’ level and we can see the level becomes alot more formed over time.

Although hard to predict based on current data we can see how the new trend is going to be formed. We will assume the .618 level will be ran in the next couple of months and the lows, or second pivot point will arrive around the same time as the halvening where usually a low occurs

The new cycle is unlikely to begin until after the next halvening, so there is approximately one year left to adjust your own data.

Bitcoin cycle top

Ok so in simple terms, the 2017 top arrived 511 days after the halvening, 2021 arrived 546 days after the halvening, which means the 2025 top could arrive at some point in September 2025, BUT let’s see if we can put a figure on this.

First we have to do a bit of guess work on cycle start dates, we’ll make this 1000 days from the highs, trust me, 2013 was 1100 days 2017 was 1000 days. 1000 days from 2021 highs means going parabolic in August 2024, we’re in the ball park somewhere. If we take the swing low to swing high of the 2017 cycle, we see this equals 0.382 of the 2021 cycle.

So all we need to do now is create a fib extension where the 0.382 line touches the full extension of the 2021 cycle

This gives us a figure in the region of $189,000 by the end of 2025. This is dynamic based on the pivot areas of the new trend. Attention should be paid to crypto markets having a preference to 0.33 and 0.66 fib levels.

If you don’t believe we can get to this figure then you should remember that in 2021 we had time to hit $65k, retrace 50% then top out at $69K

After this move we will retrace everything, deviate below the cycle trend line and start everything over again