Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Can Stablecoins Get Past Their Instability?

By Rajeev Bamra

This post is part of Consensus Magazine’s Trading Week, sponsored by CME. Rajeev Bamra is a senior vice president and head of DeFI and digital assets at Moody’s Investors Service.

Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies designed to hold a stable value through a peg to an underlying asset, such as the U.S. dollar, have gained popularity for their potential to provide the flexibility of cryptocurrency without its price volatility. Their design — whether fiat-backed, as most are, or algorithmic (i.e. backed by other assets or cryptocurrencies) — is meant to offer users a refuge from the price gyrations of traditional cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH).

One significant advantage of stablecoins is their operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness in cross-border transactions. Stablecoin transactions can take place with far fewer intermediaries than are involved in traditional bank transfers, for example, making them cheaper and faster to use for sending remittances abroad.

However, although such use cases are promising, stablecoins have not always lived up to their promised stability. In recent years there have been several instances of price depegging, when stablecoins fell below the value of their referenced assets.

See also: USDC Stablecoin Depegs From $1; Circle Says Operations Are Normal

These depegging events have been driven by a range of factors, including regulatory actions, security breaches and imbalances in digital asset pools supporting decentralized exchanges. Investors have responded by divesting their holdings, citing a lack of transparency in underlying reserves and the allure of higher yields from traditional assets in a rising interest rate environment.

Below is a closer look at how several events, as well as changing market conditions, have led to flows away from stablecoins.

  • Terra: risk of unregulated stablecoins. The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin, UST, on the Terra network in 2022 showcased the risks associated with unregulated stablecoins. The dramatic fall in UST's value had a cascading effect on tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin, causing it to temporarily trade below its $1 peg. UST's reliance on market anticipation and demand for both LUNA and UST left it vulnerable to market fluctuations.
  • FTX: risks from links to traditional finance. The collapse of FTX, a once high-valued centralized crypto exchange, raised concerns about contagion in the industry and led to a decline in USDT's value on major exchanges. These events underscore the interconnection between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency space.
  • Curve and Uniswap: liquidity pool imbalances. Another challenge has been liquidity pool imbalances within decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, such as Curve Finance and Uniswap. These imbalances, often driven by arbitrage and market fluctuations, have led to deviations from the intended peg of 1:1 for USDT, eroding trust within the DeFi community.
  • Competition from high-yielding, low-risk assets. The inverse correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and stablecoin demand has further complicated the landscape. Rising yields have enticed risk-averse investors to move funds into Treasuries, affecting the market share of stablecoins.

In addition to price volatility and competition from higher-yielding, lower-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries, regulatory ambiguity remains a significant hurdle to expansion of stablecoin usage. The lack of clear regulatory frameworks in the U.S. has left investors cautious and prompted withdrawals from DeFi platforms. The potential adoption of a widely used global stablecoin raises concerns about a shift in purchasing power from sovereign money to private payment services.

See also: How Stablecoins Merge Traditional and Decentralized Finance

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Recommended for you:

Despite these obstacles, Moody’s believes that stablecoins are likely to play a notable role in a developing digital economy, because they offer an accessible bridge between traditional finance and DeFi. Indeed, some large financial firms are investing in the future of stablecoins. Recently, PayPal introduced an institutional stablecoin, and Visa has extended support for USDC payments within its own operations.

Stablecoins do face competition from more stable alternatives, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized bank deposits. However, the demand for stability and security in digital currencies remains. Until these alternatives become widely available, in Moody’s view stablecoins will likely be a significant force in shaping the future of digital money.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • BTC Surpasses $84,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $84,000, currently priced at $84,004, with a 24-hour decline of 0.25%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • BTC Falls Below $84,000

    Market data shows that BTC has fallen below $84,000, currently priced at $83,988.06, with a 24-hour increase of 0.52%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • ETH Falls Below $2700

    Market data shows that ETH has fallen below $2700, currently priced at $2699.7, with a 24-hour increase of 1.95%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • BTC Surpasses $85,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $85,000, currently priced at $85,000.02, with a 24-hour increase of 1.72%. The market is highly volatile, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • ETH Surpasses $2700

    Market data shows that ETH has surpassed $2700, currently priced at $2700.14, with a 24-hour increase of 1.23%. The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • Yushu Technology's Wang Xingxing: Key to Breakthrough in Embodied Intelligence Lies in Solving Millimeter-Level Error Issues

    On September 25, the 5th Global Digital Trade Expo was held in Hangzhou, where Wang Xingxing, founder of Yushu Technology, delivered a keynote speech titled "From Machinery to Intelligence - The Evolutionary Theory of Embodied Future." Wang stated that the embodied intelligence industry may soon experience a critical breakthrough similar to that of ChatGPT. He believes that when robots can complete approximately 80% of tasks through voice interaction and embodied intelligence capabilities in about 80% of unfamiliar environments, the industry will enter a critical phase of large-scale application. He pointed out that the ability for robots to understand and execute specific tasks based on voice commands has already made breakthroughs last year, but the industry still faces a core technological bottleneck, namely the precise matching issue between artificial intelligence models and the real physical world. Wang noted that currently, robots still have a few millimeters of error during actual operations, which limits their stability and reliability in complex environments. "In the future, whoever can solve this problem will fundamentally resolve the issues with robots."

  • Swissquote Analyst Warns AI Narrative is a Core Pillar of US Stocks, Potential Break Could Trigger Significant Correction

    On September 25, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated that broad market indices and retirement funds are now deeply tied to the AI wave, with technology stocks accounting for about 40% of the S&P 500 index. She pointed out that the market capitalization weight of just three chip manufacturers makes up over 25% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Ozkardeskaya indicated that AI has become the 'core pillar' of the market, and this pillar 'must not show any cracks.' She believes that, in the short term, the US stock market will continue to be supported by seasonal factors, and the current market uptrend may extend until the end of the year. However, she also warned that the worst-case scenario would be a shake in the investment logic surrounding AI, which could undermine market confidence in the AI narrative, potentially triggering a significant market correction.

  • U.S. Stock Index Futures Turn Positive; Chip Stocks Rally in After-Hours Trading

    On September 25, U.S. stock index futures rose into positive territory, with Nasdaq futures up 0.36%. In after-hours trading, storage and semiconductor stocks saw widespread gains, with AMD, Intel, and SanDisk all rising by 2%.

  • NEAR Partners with Ondo to Launch 20 Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs

    On September 25, according to Cryptonews, NEAR Protocol and Ondo Finance have launched trading for tokenized US stocks and ETFs on near.com, with an initial offering of 20 assets including Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, as well as SPY and QQQ. Eligible users can deposit using over 30 supported stablecoins or other crypto assets, with NEAR Intents serving as the cross-chain distribution layer, allowing similar assets to be routed to connected wallets and DeFi protocols in the future. Purchases are settled in USDon, which is backed 1:1 by US dollars in brokerage accounts, and completed via atomic swaps. This product is not available to US persons; the overall Ondo platform has launched over 100 assets, with NEAR initially offering only one-fifth of that.

  • Meta Achieves Best Monthly Performance Since 2013, Market Value Approaches $2 Trillion

    On September 25, Meta is experiencing a strong rebound driven by AI expectations, with the popularity of its personal AI assistant Muse serving as a significant catalyst for this rally. The company's stock had faced considerable pressure earlier this year, but it quickly rebounded in September. As of September 24, the stock price has risen approximately 36% this month, marking the strongest single-month performance since 2013, with its market value nearing $2 trillion, just about 1% away from this milestone.