On April 14, since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28, the global oil market has been undergoing a profound restructuring of power dynamics. On April 2, the near-month contract price for WTI crude oil surpassed that of Brent for the first time in nearly four years, a rare price inversion reflecting the harsh realities of energy supply chain reconstruction in a state of war. The core logic behind this inversion lies in the revaluation of 'physical security.' For a long time, Brent crude enjoyed a premium due to its representation of global maritime trade flows, but with the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent-related crude from the Persian Gulf, Oman, and the UAE carries a 'risk discount,' with skyrocketing tanker insurance costs and some shipments completely halted. In contrast, WTI crude reaches Gulf Coast refineries through a mature pipeline network, making its 'land advantage' a core competitive edge in this crisis punishing maritime exposure. Germini Energy founder Germini noted, 'The market is reacting extremely quickly—buyers are no longer paying a premium for oil that represents the global market, but rather for oil that they can actually obtain.' From a market structure perspective, an extreme 'spot premium' formation has already taken shape. Currently, the price for December-delivered WTI contracts is about $77 per barrel, approximately $25 lower than the May contracts, as investors frantically purchase spot oil to cope with current supply disruptions while betting that the conflict may ease in the coming months. In the physical spot market, some Brent crude prices have already surpassed $140 per barrel. Stratas Advisors President Pasi warned that as the US announces a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the premium situation becomes more complex, with spot Brent prices potentially testing the $160 to $190 range in the coming weeks. If prices remain high for an extended period, it could trigger severe 'demand destruction,' forcing consumers to significantly cut back on usage and potentially leading to a global economic recession. Analysts suggest that this may also be the only leverage that ultimately forces both the US and Iran back to the negotiating table.