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Willy Woo: FTX Liquidation Mechanism Fuels Crypto Market Weakness, Arbitrage Strategies Drive Selling Pressure

On March 26th, crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that the current sluggish market sentiment and poor performance of altcoins can be primarily attributed to an asset liquidation mechanism born from the FTX bankruptcy, involving "locked token discount trading combined with futures hedging." During the FTX liquidation process, a significant amount of locked SOL was sold under an agreement of "pay first, deliver later." Due to limited liquidity, these sales typically occurred at discounts exceeding 60%. Some hedge funds, after purchasing these tokens, hedged against price risk by shorting on the futures market, layering in staking yields and basis yields to achieve nearly risk-free returns of approximately 70%-80%. This strategy subsequently spread throughout the industry, with many projects and their foundations pre-selling locked tokens to hedge funds. The latter then hedged through the derivatives market, releasing selling pressure. This made it difficult for ordinary investors to achieve excess returns and became a significant reason for the overall poor performance in this cycle. This implies that the nominal future unlocking selling pressure for some projects has already been digested in advance, and the actual selling pressure in the next bull market might be lower than expected. It is difficult for ordinary investors to establish an advantage in the crypto market, and it is recommended to prioritize core assets like Bitcoin.

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