"We continue to be optimistic about gold and have raised the target price for March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce." The latest view from UBS Wealth Management Investment Office points out that gold prices recently hit a historic high, mainly driven by a weaker US dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions, ongoing institutional uncertainty, and seasonal liquidity tightness. Central banks in multiple countries continue to increase their gold holdings, ETF investment inflows have increased, and strong demand for physical gold bars and coins provide solid support for rising gold prices. Looking ahead to 2026, UBS expects that as market concerns about US fiscal sustainability deepen, central banks and investors may continue to favor physical assets like gold that have no counterparty risk, with gold demand expected to maintain steady growth. Investment enthusiasm for gold ETFs is also expected to remain high. However, with current gold prices already high, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly shifts to a hawkish stance or if ETFs experience large-scale redemptions, gold prices may face downward pressure. UBS reminds that historical experience shows gold prices may enter a consolidation phase after US elections, with a slight decline expected to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 (after the US midterm elections). If political or financial risks further increase, gold prices could surge to $5,400 (previously $4,900). Gold remains a highly attractive asset and an important risk hedge in investment portfolios.
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