On April 2, U.S. President Trump declared in a national address that military actions against Iran have achieved a 'swift and decisive victory,' with core objectives nearly completed. He explicitly stated that further 'heavy strikes' against Iran will occur in the next two to three weeks, but did not mention any ceasefire arrangements or a clear path to resolution, leading to significant market fluctuations. In the energy market, Trump threatened to strike Iran's energy infrastructure if no agreement is reached, while reiterating that the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz should be the responsibility of other countries, significantly raising expectations of supply disruptions. As a result, WTI crude oil surpassed $103 per barrel, and Brent crude oil exceeded $102 per barrel, both rising over 4% in a single day, with energy risk premiums rapidly expanding. Financial markets also came under pressure: U.S. stock futures declined, with the S&P 500 futures dropping about 0.5% at one point, and the Asia-Pacific stock markets turned lower; the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to about 4.35%, while the yield on Japan's 30-year Treasury bond also increased, reflecting a market re-pricing of inflation and policy uncertainty. Precious metals experienced a significant correction, with spot gold falling below $4,700 per ounce, a drop of over 2% in a single day, and silver's decline exceeding 3%, indicating a temporary outflow of some safe-haven funds amid rising interest rates and short-term risk appetite disturbances. Market analysts believe that Trump's speech oscillated between contradictory signals of 'near victory' and 'continued strikes,' failing to provide a clear resolution to the conflict or alleviate concerns about navigation in the Strait, instead reinforcing risks to energy supply and expectations of global inflation, leading to a stark divergence in the performance of commodities and risk assets.
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