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New Stock Guru Serenity: Optimistic about XFAB, Believes Valuation is Below Reinvestment Cost with Multiple Growth Drivers in SiC, GaN, and Silicon Photonics

On June 1, 'New Stock Guru' Serenity shared his investment logic regarding the Belgian foundry XFAB (XFAB). He believes that with the growth of 800V power architecture, AI data centers, and power semiconductor demand, the SiC (silicon carbide) and GaN (gallium nitride) supply chains are expected to continue benefiting. As the only high-capacity SiC pure foundry in the U.S., XFAB holds a key position in the restructuring of the Western semiconductor supply chain. Serenity pointed out that XFAB has achieved mass production of advanced 6-inch SiC processes and is expanding its 8-inch GaN capacity, with the possibility of developing 8-inch SiC under the support of the U.S. CHIPS Act in the future. The company's SiC business revenue has grown by 152% year-on-year, but due to the sluggish automotive industry, this growth potential has not been fully reflected in the market. Additionally, power semiconductor manufacturers such as Navitas (NVTS) and Power Integrations (POWI) have partnerships with XFAB, making it an important beneficiary in the AI power and 800V architecture supply chain. He further mentioned that the U.S. Department of Commerce has recognized XFAB as the only high-capacity SiC foundry in the country and has received approximately $50 million in government support; the EU has also provided about €128 million in funding through the European Chips Act for MEMS and AI-related capacity construction, along with an additional €47.6 million to support the development of the silicon photonics supply chain. Serenity believes that these subsidies and certifications from the governments of Europe and the U.S. reflect XFAB's strategic position in the critical supply chain. In terms of valuation, Serenity stated that XFAB's current price-to-book ratio is only about 1.28 times, and based on his calculations of the foundry's reinvestment cost, the actual trading price may even be below its reinvestment value. He believes that investors are currently acquiring existing business at a low valuation while gaining the growth options for future SiC, GaN, and silicon photonics businesses for free. Overall, Serenity believes that XFAB has limited downside risk, and with the restructuring of the supply chain in Europe and the U.S., ongoing chip subsidies, and the commercialization of silicon photonics as catalysts, the company has a potential valuation re-evaluation space of about 2.5 to 4 times in the future.

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