As of June 20, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is reported at 61.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike stands at 38.5%.
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Fed's Probability of 25 Basis Point Rate Hike in July at 38.5%
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Syria Rejects Trump's Proposal: Will Not Deploy Troops to Lebanon
On June 22, according to CCTV, in response to U.S. President Trump's recent claims that Syria 'could help deal with the Hezbollah issue in Lebanon,' Syrian Transitional Government President Sharif publicly denied on June 21 that Syria is seeking military intervention in Lebanon, and called on the U.S. to 'stop the war.' -
South Korean Financial Regulator Regrets Allowing Samsung and SK Hynix Leveraged ETFs
On June 22, the head of South Korea's financial regulatory agency expressed regret over allowing the launch of leveraged ETFs from Samsung and SK Hynix, stating that the negative impact of these high-risk products has significantly increased. -
Iranian Delegation Leaves Switzerland to Return Home
On June 22, Iranian media reported that the Iranian delegation, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly, has left Switzerland and is returning to Iran. (Xinhua News Agency) -
Bank of England Begins Drafting Rules for Regulating Systemically Important Stablecoins
On June 22, the Bank of England began drafting rules for regulating systemically important stablecoins. (Bloomberg) -
Li Qiang to Attend the 17th Summer Davos Forum
On June 22, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the 17th Summer Davos Forum in Dalian from June 23 to 24. During the forum, Premier Li will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a special address, meet with foreign guests attending the forum, and hold discussions with representatives from the business community. Attendees will include Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Guinea Prime Minister Ibrahima Kassory Fofana, Kazakhstan Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov, South Korea Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Mongolia Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene, and Montenegro Prime Minister Dritan Abazović. More than 1,700 representatives from politics, business, academia, and media from over 90 countries and regions will participate. -
Five Key Points of the Agreement Reached in the First Round of Iran-U.S. Negotiations
On June 22, according to CCTV International News, the media committee of the Iranian negotiation delegation released key contents and agreement points reached during the first round of negotiations in Geneva on June 22 local time: 1. Under pressure from the Iranian delegation, the fragile ceasefire in the Lebanese region has been maintained since the afternoon of June 20. To strengthen this ceasefire, a supervisory mechanism named the 'Conflict De-escalation Group' will be established, with Iran participating. This mechanism signifies Iran's formal entry into the Lebanese security framework. The U.S. had attempted in recent months to exclude Iran from matters related to Lebanon, while Israel has no position in this mechanism. 2. Regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a communication hotline will be established to ensure the gradual reopening of the strait, allowing for direct contact with Iran to coordinate solutions in case of issues during implementation. This arrangement is interpreted as a form of acknowledgment of Iran's sovereign status in the Strait of Hormuz. 3. According to the joint statement, three working groups will be established to address nuclear issues, Iranian sanctions, and the supervisory mechanism, and they will begin work after the implementation of Article 13 of the memorandum of understanding. Article 13 includes: a comprehensive ceasefire (especially on the Lebanese front), lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing Iran's frozen assets, and issuing waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical products. Prior to this, Iran will not enter the final phase of negotiations. 4. In this round of negotiations, Iran and Qatar also signed a memorandum of understanding regarding the execution mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets. 5. During the negotiations, according to Article 10 of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a 60-day waiver for sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and related products. This means Iran can officially sell oil to customers and receive related payments through the official mechanism of the central bank. -
Zhipu's Stock Surges 2467% This Year, Musk Predicts Chinese AI to Catch Up by Q1 Next Year
On June 22, Hong Kong stock Zhipu (2513.HK) saw its intraday gains expand to 42.31%, reaching a peak of HKD 2980 per share, setting a new record high with a total market capitalization exceeding HKD 1 trillion. Since its lowest point of HKD 116.1 per share after its listing in January 2026, the stock has surged 2467% this year. Data shows that Zhipu is currently the highest-valued AI company in China, with its market capitalization nearing half of Alibaba's (HKD 1.97 trillion), two times that of Meituan (HKD 435.3 billion), and three times that of JD.com (HKD 299.3 billion). On June 18, Tesla founder Elon Musk responded to a user on social media regarding the timeline for China to reach Fable-level AI, stating, 'Perhaps Q1 (2027).' In response, Tsinghua University professor and Zhipu AI founder Tang Jie replied to Musk, 'It won’t take that long.' Musk seemed undeterred, replying below, 'Looking solely at various benchmark tests, perhaps; but if judged by actual practical value, catching up by Q1 next year would already be quite impressive.' (The Paper) -
South Korea Considers Separate Measures for Samsung and SK Hynix Leveraged ETFs
On June 22, Lee Chan-jin, the head of the Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea, stated that due to the persistent demand from retail investors for high-risk products, financial regulators are considering separate stabilizing measures for individual stock leveraged ETFs. During a press conference on Monday, Lee mentioned that the side effects of individual stock leveraged ETFs are becoming increasingly pronounced. He also noted that the Financial Supervisory Service is investigating the failed allocation of SpaceX IPO stocks by Future Assets, aiming to prevent similar issues from occurring in the future to protect investor rights. -
AI Pioneer Fei-Fei Li: Future Workforce Will Only Have Two Types of People, Top Experts and Highly Proactive Generalists
On June 22, Fei-Fei Li, a Stanford University professor known as the 'AI Pioneer' and co-founder of World Labs, along with MasterClass CEO David Rogier, appeared on a podcast where they discussed the types of individuals who will thrive in the AI era. Both emphasized the same term: Agency. Li stated that in the face of such powerful cognitive technology, Agency is key; one must familiarize themselves with it, master it, and not be afraid or avoid it. Rogier noted that a 'barbell structure' has emerged within companies: on one end are top experts, who excel in their craft to the top 1%, unreachable by ordinary individuals even with large language models (LLMs); on the other end are highly proactive generalists who can perform many tasks well, possess strong judgment and drive, and know when to collaborate with top experts. The middle layer, consisting of those who only complete standard tasks, is being squeezed the most. Li agreed with this assessment, stating that both ends require Agency. Experts need to leverage tools to amplify their depth, while generalists must use tools to transcend their previous capability boundaries. Company structures will also change: the boundaries of what individuals can and cannot do will diminish, and the delineation of roles will be redrawn. Mid-level executors who define themselves solely by 'I am responsible for this process' will easily be surpassed by those who are smaller, more proactive, and better at utilizing tools. -
Three Departments: Gradually Enhance the Level of Financial Industry Openness
On June 22, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Action Plan for Stabilizing and Promoting the Use of Foreign Investment," which mentioned the gradual enhancement of the openness level of the financial industry. Under the premise of improving regulatory cooperation and risk prevention, support more foreign-funded institutions to utilize risk management tools, including treasury bond futures, to strengthen financial risk management. Support foreign-funded institutions to legally carry out fund investment advisory services. Optimize cross-border business management and provide facilitation quotas for cross-border financing to key foreign-funded enterprises. Guide domestic banks to offer "customer-agent" international settlement document services for large foreign-funded enterprises. Optimize pre-communication services for listing applications at exchanges and support qualified key foreign-funded enterprises to raise funds through domestic listings.
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