On June 5, Citi's bear market warning indicator revealed that the current level of bubble formation in the global stock market has reached a peak not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis, but overall, it has not yet entered an overheating state. The research team led by Beata Manthe stated that despite global stock indices approaching historical highs, the bank's bear market checklist indicator (BMC) has not signaled excessive market enthusiasm. Citi maintains a bullish outlook on the stock market for the year but remains vigilant about rising risks. Strategists noted that historical patterns show that when the indicator triggers warning thresholds above double digits, subsequent movements often accelerate upward.
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Citi: Global Stock Market Bubble Reaches Highest Level Since 2008, Yet Not Overheated
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US Stocks in AI Chip Sector Plummet, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm Down Over 5%
On June 5, US stocks in the AI chip sector collectively declined. Baidu fell over 6%, while Lattice Semiconductor, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm dropped more than 5%. NXP and Broadcom fell over 4%, IBM, TSMC, and Cisco declined over 3%, and NVIDIA was down more than 2%. -
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On June 5, U.S. stock indices continued their downward trend, with the S&P 500 index declining by 1%, the Nasdaq composite falling by 1.6%, the Nasdaq 100 index dropping by 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 0.3%. In terms of news, U.S. non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, leading the market to price in further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. U.S. interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a rate hike by the Fed in December has risen from 48% to 63%. -
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On June 5, BlackRock senior portfolio manager Jeffrey Rosenberg stated that whether the Federal Reserve will lead market pricing actions or be pushed forward by the market is still uncertain. Currently, it appears to be the latter. This leaves policymakers with only remedial measures. -
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U.S. Stock Market: Storage Sector Declines, SanDisk and Micron Technology Drop Over 5%
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Goldman Sachs: Employment is Not an Issue, Iran War Will Determine Fed's Next Move
On June 5, Lindsey Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, commented on U.S. non-farm payrolls: Recent data indicates that we are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve does not need to worry about labor market issues. The Fed will 'focus on inflation issues, and ultimately, the duration of this (Iran) war will determine the Fed's next actions.' -
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On June 5, Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the 'echo chamber' of the Federal Reserve, pointed out that the acceleration of hiring activities this spring will provide more justification for Fed officials who are concerned about inflation and believe that current interest rates are too low to curb a new wave of price pressures. Some officials have recently suggested that the Fed should be prepared for interest rate hikes later this year, at least to reverse some of the three 25-basis-point cuts implemented in the second half of last year. These cuts were aimed at stabilizing the labor market, which now appears to be in much better condition than it was at that time. This employment report will not completely resolve the debate about how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it does further indicate that the reasons for rate cuts in the short term have largely disappeared. The more compelling reasons supporting rate hikes currently stem from the inflation outlook. Multiple shocks, including infrastructure development in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and energy, could keep inflation persistently above the Fed's 2% target, even if progress is made in restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Fed remains inactive during a period of rising inflation, the real interest rates adjusted for inflation will decline. Even if the labor market is not the main driving factor, this mechanism could become an important element in discussions about raising rates. -
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,400
On June 5, spot gold fell below $4,400 per ounce, down 1.69% for the day. Spot silver also experienced a significant drop of 4.00%, currently reported at $70.90 per ounce.
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